Holistic Performance Assessment-5 of Afghanistan National Development Strategy 2005-2013 ()
1. Introduction
Afghanistan began to enter into the development of medium-term planning (most 5 - 7 years national development plan) in 1939, but due to World War I, the process was postponed. It counts as a first step, for the county involved in planning for development on a large scale. Officially, Afghanistan made National Development Plan (NDP) in 1956-1962 under the name of the first Afghanistan Economic Plan; some USSR experts took part in preparing it. The Afghanistan Political Economy identified Mixed from liberalism and socialism (AEP, 1955: p. 5). The NDP process continued with Afghanistan Social and Economic Development Plan (1962-1967), followed by the third Afghanistan Social and Economic Development Plan (1967-1972), the fourth ASEDP (1972-1976), and the fifth ASEDP (1976-1983). Then the political stability of Afghanistan fell. Due to a long history of conflict and war from 1978 to 2001, the process of Planned Development was defeated. According to data from 20 million citizens, 11 million approximately (60%) of the population have been directly affected by war issues, among which 5 million emigrated, 2 million were internally displaced, 1.8 million were killed, 2 million were injured (Farahmand, 2023: p. 8). In 2005, the first Afghanistan National Development Strategy was prepared, and in 2008, ANDS, after being revised, became finalized. This paper, given an assessment of NDP evaluation after about four decades of conflict and war in the country, is the seventh attempt of NDP in the country’s history, as the goals of the first NDP are still a dream to achieve.
2. Literature Review
There are some research papers, discussing on performance, evaluation, policy applied assessment; that assess med-term development mostly 4 - 7 years long Plans. The countries also evaluate their plans and policies formally, beside of Policy Analysts. As we discussing on Afghanistan National Development Strategy (ANDS) after new political order in the country, it seems that performance assessment leads both researchers and policy maker toward new policy analysis notions. First, the article discusses some papers which related to the NDP and evaluation of its performance. Second, focusing on methods leading as to a defer model performance assessment of ANDS. Sometimes, Management Performance Method suggests assessing the governance and management of a policy (Osmani & Maliqi, 2012).
Fry assessed Turkey’s first five-year development plan about four decades ago, the main focus is on the success or failure of government in applying plan and its economic goals regarding of NDP goals in investment, and GDP rate of growth. The research emphasizes economic development performance of plan generally (Fry, 1971: pp. 315-318). It shows the historical background of NDP assessment globally, and the changing of the assessment nature. In this manner Balakrishan studied the Sri Lanka NDP, besides of the issues Fry focused, he evaluate a NDP function on Employment, Private Sector investment and NGP growth particularly (Balakrishnan, 1973: pp. 1162-1168).
Chimhowu Study focusing on systematic reviews of 123 NDPs to understand the trend of glob react on med-term plans to achieve their goals. This study shows the trend of planning from 1930, and its high level in 1980, and then falling after 2000. As it discusses, NDP is a global trend, assessment focuses on the persuading of Millennium/Global Development Goals (Chimhowu, Hulme, & Munro, 2019: pp. 74-83).
Abigail Stiglingh and Van Wyk assessed the South Africa National Development Plan, using the evaluation of achieving its Five Objects and 14 outcomes were determined in. The study using official report regarding its performance based on objects and outcome such as equity by Gini index (Stiglingh & Wyk, 2020: pp. 358-366). The article just assessed based on formal measures identified in the plan or by respondent organizations such as National Planning Commission.
Tomas Grosse designed a model-based assessment of NDP in Poland to evaluate the approaches and Grand Method of planning. This study also argues some recommendations for achieving determined goals in the plan. The article suggests following Scandinavian counties path on sectorial, regional and EU funding protocol for Poland. The research clearly gives an overall assessment not in detail-based assessment (Gosse, 2005).
A group of researchers designed Dashboard of Performance of Information System (D-PIS) to show the performance of National Development. The model has the performance of national objectives, overall performance, SDGs performance, sectorial performance options (Bchir, Benkerroum, Khaled, & Han, 2017). This model is applied for NDP of Lebanon in contribution with ministry of economy.
Extended Geelhoed-Schouwstra framework is another model suggested by Marije Schouwstra as explanatory method of policy analysis, states to explain the goals, objectives, methods/instrument, activities, performance, and evaluation of NDP in two manners of institutional framework of geography, history, and culture. This framework can explain the space of an NDP or policy condition to receive their exact its performance (Schouwstra & Ellman, 2006).
Another model is the five attribute-performance assessment (FAPA), that focuses on assessing the costs of plan/policy, time, quality, productivity, and environment. This model applied in transport sector assessment by Paddeu Daniela (Daniela, 2021). The most new element of the model is environmental aspects. This model can apply in many assessment policy field of NDP.
Finally, United Nations Development Program (UNDP) uses a model of evaluation to assess its contribution to underdeveloped countries. This model is used in many countries to determine the exact condition of development programs/ projects that the UNDP has part in technically or financially. The model is called Assessment of Development Results (ADRs), for example, in 2008 UNDP reported totally a comprehensive assessment of Ecuador (UNDP, Assessment of development results: Ecuador, 2008). UNDP reports yearly its contribution performance based on this model behalf of its assist on Afghanistan.
3. Methodology and Holistic Performance Assessment-5
Model
This paper uses a mixed method of Qualitative and Quantitative. The more weight is given to the quantitative method. Both Data collection and data analysis are going on simultaneously, reported by (Creswell, 2014: p. 300). The data collection method was using secondary resources such as a survey of Afghanistan People Survey by Asia Foundation from 2006 up to 2014 manual reports (Foundation, Afghanistan People Survey, 2008, 2010, 2012), Afghanistan Report about Millennium Development Goals 2005, 2008 (UNDP, Assessment of development results: Ecuador, 2008), 2012-13 (UNDP & Strategy, Islamic Republic of Afghanistan Millennium Development Goals Report 2012, 2013), World Bank Data and National Risk and Vulnerability Assessment reports 2005, 2008 (Pauli, 2008), and 2012 (Organization, 2013) in term of quantitative. Besides of those statics data, the research uses the document qualitative collection and analysis method from ANDS reports and papers (Sadovnik, 2007: pp. 418-420).
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Figure 1. Holistic performance assessment-5.
As the paper discussed on literature review about last research and its methodic model bring applied for evaluation of NDP performance, it seem to design different model to have a new approach. The model designed for this article is a new combination of those models in our holistic performance assessment with focusing on five elements (HPA-5). This model can make a general image of ANDS performance, not in very detail and not in vague conditions. This method contains the three criteria of William Dunn approach effectiveness, responsiveness, and equity (Dunn, 2018: p. 333), both Goals and objectives of Schouwstra & Ellman (Schouwstra & Ellman, 2006). In the economic aspect incomes, GDP, and GDP growth rate of Balakrishnan and Fry (Balakrishnan, 1973; Fry, 1971). Ass the ANDS is regarding of MDGs of the UN we use the MDGs assessment method to examine the achievement behalf its 9 goals with more than 20 indicators. The type of planning tradition, that indicates the planning tradition, budget resource, and technical knowledge condition is another part of holistic performance assessment. Side-affects is other element of the socio-cultural and environment large scale change regarding before the plan would discussed. The model left the weakness of other model, for example, Schouwstra & Ellman left behind the side-effects assessment (Figure 1).
4. Finding & Discussion
Here are some important findings; the paper aims to analysis statics and data of the research according to the methodic and conceptual model (HPA-5), in five parts, separately.
4.1. The Planning Tradition Type
According to the questions in model, the main aim of this element is to answer question on the type of planning including of tradition, experience, and budget source. As the Social Reform Tradition is focusing on Top-Down model of Planning and policymaking is large scale of decision-making, most of them reflecting in most part of 4 - 7 Years of Planning approach (Friedmann, 2020: p. 91). In a historical view, ANDS is the continuation of the last 5 - 6 NDPs since 1956, it’s not completely but partly in the context of Institutional Rational planning history in the country. As Friedman figures out by a model in his book different experts have participated in making policies and plan, then designing projects/programs in different sectors. Finally, according to the ability of organizations all of them took actions for achieving the objectives (Friedmann, 2020: pp. 94-96). “A comprehensive ‘bottom-up’ approach was used in the development of the ANDS that has taken into account all aspects of social and economic life as well as fully reflecting the diversity of people in all parts of the country” (ANDS-II, 2008: pp. 6-7). The last point is societal guidance that this tradition following in their planning, the cycle of societal guidance showing that Elites (Politicians + Experts) as figuring or in other interpreting from people’s needs, desires, wants, and values making decision by designing plans to guiding and engineering (Friedmann, 2020: p. 116). It is obviously mere that most part of ANDS prepared by top-down controlling the security condition, poverty, economy, welfare, agriculture, and water issues most focussed in. As the plan objectives and goals show, the social engineering and societal guidance mentioned in the plan, “ANDS rpresents the combined efforts of the Afghanistan people and the Afghanistan Government with the support of the international community to address the major challenges facing the country” (ANDS-II, 2008: p. 5).
This tradition was applied in the pre-ANDS completely, but mostly in final version used the policy makers and planners used Policy Analysis tradition in some parts also. This tradition refers to the decision making approach that prepared after the policy cycle, described in Policy Science. In the first place, decision making elevated cognition over action as Saint Simon was said. The process started form problem formulation (context, objectives, criteria), searching for data and alternative (facts, probabilities, alternatives, costs), Explanation (Model building, approximation, consumptions, results), interpretation (non-quantifiable, uncertainties, conclusions), finally, to make decision or take actions (Friedmann, 2020: p. 154). It is used most for sectorial plan, some cross-cutting issues policy making, and in the middle position of societal guidance and down-up solution for the problems. In pages 23-25, the first sectorial problem that country needs to take action is agriculture, security, education, and the social protection. As the ANDS showed, the most policy, and programs that determined in the strategy come after a cross-cutting survey and research have been taken in 34 provinces. The cross-cutting issues mentioned in the ANDS are the security, good governance, social protection, and corruptions (ANDS-II, 2008), clearly reflect the using of Policy Analysis tradition beside the Social Reform tradition in the ANDS.
Afghanistan returns to the development and national planning after approximately four decades of conflict. The experts, policy experts, data, organization were destroyed. It was clear this plan prepared by technical assistance of foreign expert most of them were from U.S.A and EU. Afghanistan faced with lack of data, national survey, and update information on socio-economic condition of its population. This makes planning hard task to deal with. Some primary information and data remained from before 1979. The second challenge was the lack of experience in field of applying such a complex policy document. The successful implementation of ANDS was depended on the experience, knowledge, experts, and contribution of stakeholders.
In term of Budget, the normal plus development budget had two sources: First, international assistance, which played approximately 74% in 2003 and 55% in 2010. It was a great progress toward financial independency for ANDS (see Figure 2).
Figure 2. Government and donor parts in national budget; Source: Ministry of Finance.
4.2. Effectiveness
This element is in the centre of HAP-5 analysis, but the data especially official data is limited. The ANDS had three visions to stable institutional democracy, sustainable and equitable economic growth, and peaceful society. Those were the instruction for government for all of its activities. The national development strategy determined three objectives for security, governance and economic and social development, and precisely recognized the 9 millennium development goals. Before stating on MDGs achievement, it is proper to mention, the ANDS revised from its first version from 2005, because the International Fund and technical assistance was depend on the following the MDGs (see Table 1).
Table 1. Objectives of ANDS and MDGs; Source: Afghanistan National Development Strategy, 2008.
Objective Structure of Afghanistan National Development Strategy |
Visions |
National Development Objectives |
Millennium Development Goals |
1) A stable Islamic constitutional democracy 2) A sustainable and equitable economic growth 3) A peaceful and just society |
1) Security: Achieve nationwide stabilization, strengthen law enforcement, and improve
personal security for every citizens. 2) Governance, Rule of Law and Human Rights: Strengthen democratic processes and institutions, Human rights, the rule of law, delivery of public services and government accountability. 3) Economic and Social Development: Reduce poverty, ensure sustainable development through
a private-sector-led market economy, improve human development indicators, and make significant progress towards the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). |
Goal 1: Eradicate Extreme Poverty and Hunger Goal 2: Achieve Universal Primary Education Goal 3: Promote Gender Equality and Empower Women Goal 4: Reduce Child Mortality Goal 5: Improve Maternal Health Goal 6: Combat HIV/AIDS, Malaria, Tuberculosis, and other Diseases Goal 7: Ensure Environmental Sustainability Goal 8: Global Partnership for Development Goal 9: Enhancing Security |
The ANDP designed about 130 programs/ projects for next 5 years in term of achieving of nine Global Development Goals in direction of three central Objectives of ANDS mentioned above. Those projects were under 15 sectors, as data shown in Table 2 approximately 80 projects/programs have been successfully completed under the direction of ANDS in the country (see Table 2). Abdul Hadi Arghandiwal, the minister of economic in September 2014 said:” we were 66% successful to achieve our goals in ANDS…it cost 4.9 billion dollar spent from internal asset, and 10.6 billion dollar funded by international community” (Arghandiwal, 2014).
It was an overall assessment based on implementation projects, in addition, the paper would discuss about the achievement of ANDS objects/goals. The data can describe the condition of its achievement regarding to every Goal. Afghanistan National Development Strategy applied eight Millennium Development Goals, in addition added Enhancing Security as its ninth goals. According to every goal, this paper describes the results, outcomes, and final assessment regarding the proper goal.
Table 2. Programs/projects implementation; Source: I-ANDS, ANDS, World Bank: Ind: Projects.
Pillars in I-ANDS |
Sectors in ANDS |
Programs/Projects |
Predicted Projects |
Completed Projects |
Security |
Security |
10 |
9 |
Governance, Rule of Law, and Human Rights |
Governance, Rule of Law, and Human Rights |
17 |
15 |
Private Sector Development |
13 |
12 |
Energy |
10 |
7 |
Infrastructure & Natural Resources |
Water and Irrigation |
4 |
8 |
Agriculture and Rural Development |
18 |
4 |
Transport |
7 |
9 |
Economic, Governance & Private Sector Development |
Information and Communications Technology |
3 Policies |
3 |
Urban Development |
5 |
1 |
Health |
Mining |
4 Policies |
4 |
Health and Nutrition |
8 |
7 |
Education |
Education |
3 |
8 |
Culture, Youth and Media |
13 Policies |
|
Social Protection |
Social Protection |
13 |
7 |
Refuges, Returnees and Internally Displaced Persons |
2 |
NA |
N = 8 |
N = 15 |
N = 130 |
N = 801 |
Table 3. Poverty Indicators in Afghanistan; Sources: NRVA reports, 2012, MDGs report, 2013, World Bank reports 2005-2014, World Bank Group, 2023.
Poverty Indicators in Afghanistan |
Indicators |
2005 |
2008 |
2010 |
2012 |
Under CBN Rate2 Poverty |
33% |
42% |
36% |
36% |
Under Minimum of Dietary Energy Consume3 |
30% |
39% |
29% |
30.1% |
Indicator |
2007 |
2008 |
2011 |
2013 |
Under 2$ income poverty of World Bank |
33.7% |
34% |
38.3 % |
39% |
MDG1: Eradicate Extreme Poverty and Hunger
One of the main goals of ANDS was fighting against poverty and hunger largely the society encounter. The plan targeted annually 3% reduction of poverty, in final stage completely eradicate until Year 2020 A.D. Research used three source of secondary data of National Risk and Vulnerability Assessment Under Costs of Basic Need indicator, under minimum of dietary energy consume and the under two dollar income poverty of World Bank. If we were assessing regarding to ANDS2005, the goal would not have achieved. Therefore, if we assessed based of ANDS-II (2008), the CBN indicator would show from 42% decline to 36% in 2012 A.D about from 12% of four-year implementation, it make 6% eradication that make 50% of succeed. According to MDEC indicator, it makes 8.9% decline that shows 75% accomplishment. On other hand, according to under two dollars income indicator of World Bank the poverty from 34% in 2008, increased up to 39% in 2013, therefore the performance based of G1 assess has failed (see Table 3).
MDG2: Achieve Universal Primary Education
ANDS targeted to improve literacy and up to 2020 all Afghanistan eligible child should enrolled in schools. The indicator for assessment the research applied was, Literacy rate of residents aging 18 - 25 years, net primary school enrolment of eligible children, and completion of primary education. The progress was obviously bold, for example, the literacy from 34% of 18 - 25 years old population in 2003 improved to 45% in 2012. The NPSE indicator showed from 60% of eligible children in 2007 increased up to 77% in 2012. It means that based on ANDS 2005 the rate was 37% until 2012 the rate changed 77% about 40% net progress. Furthermore, based on ANDS-II (2008), from 63% changed to 77%, overall 14% progress. In term of completion of primary education indicator, available data figure out 58% in 2010 promotion to 62% in 2012. According to the manually 3% progress, the progress was 3.6% per year, therefore assess successful (see Figure 3).
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Figure 3. Education and literacy indicator for ANDS; Source: NRVA reports, 2003, 2005, 2008, 20013 (P71), MDGs reports, 2008, 2013.
MDG3: Promote Gender Equality and Empower Women
ANDS includes many projects regarding on gender equality and women empowerment, therefore the plan third objective was gender equality. In order to assess achievement, the research used three indicators, Ratio of girls and boys school enrolment (up to 2020 = 1), ratio of female and male literacy (up to 2020 = 0.90), and women political participation (up to 2020 = 25%). The first indicator state a real promotion of equality from 0.59 to 0.71 (0.74) that progress 0.10 (0.14) toward equality. In literacy indicator, the ratio changed from 0.34 in 2005 up to 0.52 in 2012 the rate of progress was (0.15). In term of political participation, totally from 25% in parliament and executive forces change to 26% in 2012 (see Table 4). Therefore, ANDS-II made progress in this goal according to predicted result.
Table 4. Women equality and empowerment in Afghanistan; Sources: NRVA reports, 2005, 2008, 2012, MDGs Afghanistan report, 2013.
Indicators |
2005 |
2008 |
2010 |
2012 |
Ratio of Girls/Boys School Enrolment |
0.6 |
0.59 |
0.66 |
0.71(0.74) |
Ratio of Female/male literacy 15 - 24Y |
0.34 |
0.37 |
0.45 |
0.52 |
Women Political Participation |
25% |
24.9% |
27% |
26% |
MDG4: Reduce Child Mortality
Whilst, the target for forth goal was 50% reduction of child mortality based on 2003 report (257) up to 2015, infant live birth from (165) to (93) per 1000 live birth, and immunizing 1-years old children against measles up to 90%. According to data it looked like the goal was not achieved properly; there made progress from 161 under five mortality rate per 1000 in 2008 to 102 in 2012, infant mortality rate from 111 in 2008 to 74 in 2012, and from 56% of 1-year old child immunized against measles in 2008 to 62% in 2012 (see Table 5).
Table 5. Child mortality indicators for ANDS; Source: Afghanistan MDGs report 2010, 2013, NRVA, 2003, 2008, 2012.
Indicators |
Baseline (2003) |
2008 |
2010 |
2012 |
Targeted (2015) |
Under 5 mortality rate (per 1000 live births) |
257 |
161 |
97 |
102 |
93 |
Infant mortality rate (per 1000 live births) |
165 |
111 |
77 |
74 |
70 |
Proportion of 1-year old children immunized against measles |
35% |
56% |
62% |
62% |
90% |
MDG5: Improve Maternal Health
As the new state inherent a fragile health system without a stable policy making experience, the achievement of goal relevant on health care was hard. The new organizations on health care services need more time to track on. Therefore, the declared goals for ANDS faced with obstacles, but the outcome was in some indicators acceptable. Among the other indicators the research used four indicators. The maternal morality ratio in 100,000 births was 1600 in 2003, it reduced 327 in 2010, the target was 315 in 2015, in result the achievement assessed successful. The proportion of births by skilled health personnel from 6% of all in 2003 changed 28% in 2008, 47% in 2012, the target was 43% for 2015; so the result was 4% more than target. The adolescent birth of women 14 - 19 years old was 146 per 1000 birth in 2003, it progressed to 80 per 1000 birth in 2010. The indicator of antenatal coverage in health care centre, at least one visit during the pregnancy from 5% in 2003, promoted to 60% in 2010, and 53% in 2012. According to the target for 2015 that might cover 65% of population, assess successful (see Table 6).
Table 6. Maternal health care indicators; Source: NRNA report, 2003, 2008, 2012, MDGs report 2012, 2013.
Indicators |
2003 |
2008 |
2010 |
2011 |
2012 |
2015 |
Maternal Mortality Ratio (in 100,000) |
1600 |
NA |
327 |
NA |
NA |
315 |
Proportion of births attended
by skilled health personnel |
6% |
24% |
34% |
37% |
47% |
43% |
Adolescent Birth Rate |
146 |
122 |
80 |
NA |
NA |
NA |
Antenatal Coverage (at least one visit) |
5% |
36% |
60% |
48% |
53% |
65% |
MDG6: Combat HIV/AIDs, Malaria
The sixth goal of ANDS was to combat HIV/AIDs and Malaria during the period of National Development Plan 2005/08-2013. Therefore, in term of indicator just as the data and information were available, the research estimates three indicator for. To begin with, the prevalence of HIV. AIDs among blood donor in 2005 was 0.13% reduced to 0.01% in 2012, which the result was complete achievement of goal. In indicator of blood sample tested for HIV/AIDs was 32% of population in 2005; the gaol for 2015 was 100% that in 2012 was achieved. In term of Malaria combat, the death number was 46 individual in 2005, reduced to 36 in 2012 as the ministry of Public Health reported (see Table 7). The assessment interpret successfully achievement of gaols that ANDS targeted for it implementation.
Table 7. Prevalence disease combat indicator; Sources: MoPH report, 2014; MDGs report, 2013.
Indicator Types |
2005 |
2008 |
2010 |
2012 |
Prevalence Among Blood Donors |
0.13% |
0.04% |
0.03% |
0.01% |
Blood Sample Screened for HIH/AIDs |
32% |
35% |
52% |
100% |
Malaria total death |
NA |
46 |
22 |
36 |
MDG7: Ensure Environmental Sustainability
The biggest crisis for the planet is climate change since 1990, as the MDGs identified the seventh goal of all state to ensure environmental sustainability. ANDS describe one of its most important objective EES in Afghanistan. The indicators, which this research used to examine, were ratio area protected for biological diversity, co2 emissions, Access to improve water resource, and safe water resource. Firstly In 2005 the co2 emission in measure of metric tons per capita was 0.04, due to climate change increased to 2, which interpret as failed for ANDS. Ratio of Area protected for biological diversity indicator progress from 0.3% of area in 2008 to 0.5% of hole in 2012. In term of access to improved water resource had zigzag routine, 23% of population in 2005, 41.4% in 2008, 27% in 2010, and 31% in 2010 the target was 61.5% in 2020; therefore the improvement was not adopted with target. Finally in term of access to safe water resource the target was 66% population, research mentioning to two differ type of data. According to National Risk and Vulnerability Assessment reports the promotion begin with 31% of population in 2005, and 45.5% in 2012. It look like 15% increase but not adopted to the target. World Bank Data show the start from 14% of population in 2005, reached 21% level in 2010, just 7% increase (see Table 8). Therefore the result was far from the targeted goals, interpreted failed.
Table 8. Environmental indicator for ANDS, MDGs report, 2013; NRVA reports, 2005, 2008, 2012: p 99; (Farahmand, 2020: p. 90).
Indicators |
2005 |
2008 |
2010 |
2012 |
Ratio Areas protected for biological Diversity |
0.34 |
0.30 |
0.36 |
0.5 |
CO2 Emissions (Metric Tons per Capita) |
0.04 |
0.51 |
1.9 |
2 |
Access to Improved Water Resource |
23% |
41.4% |
27.2% |
31% |
Access to Safe Water Resource Based On NRVA |
31% |
27% |
NA |
45.5% |
Access to Safe Water Resource Based WB |
14% |
17% |
19% |
21% |
MDG8: Enhancing Security
Research estimates the eighth goal of ANDS condition based on five indicators. First indicator is the hazardous area remained from last three decade of war and conflict in Afghanistan that reduced from 715 Km2 in 2005 to 570 Km2 in 2012; it was a positive step toward security. Second indicator is mine victims that profoundly decreased from 1200 reported victims in 2005 to 360 victims in 2012. Third indicator was gun crime cases that from 10.7k in 2008 increased to 12.6K cases in 2012; therefore interpret a failed. The population depend on opium cultivation was 12.9% of entire population in 2005 and reduce in half to 6% in 2010; so the result was not adopted with ANDS to eliminate. The indicator of fearing for personal safety from APS of Asia Foundation used to estimate the ANDS and government security policies for reaching and enhancing security. The indicator release that from 49% of respondents feel fear for their personal safety in 2007, changed to 48% in 2008, 51% in 2009, 54% in 2010, 56% in 2011, 48% in 2012, 59% in 2013, and 65% in 2014 (see Table 9). This was the other failure to implementation of ANDP as mother policy for security policies.
Table 9. Security indicators for ANDS, NDGs reports 2008, 2013; Asia Foundation, Afghanistan People Surveys 2006-2014.
Indicators |
2005 |
2007 |
2008 |
2009 |
2010 |
2011 |
2012 |
Hazardous Areas in Km2 |
715 Km2 |
NA |
722 Km2 |
NA |
649 Km2 |
NA |
570 Km2 |
Mine Victims Reported |
1200 |
NA |
700 |
NA |
504 |
NA |
360 |
Gun Crimes Cases |
NA |
NA |
10.7K |
8.8K |
8.5K |
11.6K |
12.6K |
Ratio Population Depend on Opium |
12.9% |
14.3% |
9.8% |
6.4% |
6% |
NA |
NA |
Fearing for personal safety |
NA |
49% |
48% |
51% |
54% |
56% |
48% |
4.3. Equity
The equity is third aspect of assessment in HAP-5 model. In this element, this research would examine and assess the benefits and cost equally distributed among the society policy or plan implemented? It is for social justice and for contribution of outcomes for all citizens live in a country. The theory of normative evaluation deals with distributive justice of John Rawls to generate the value based assessment. Equity is originally come from Meta-ethic perspective in assessment of policy (Dunn, 2018: pp. 325-326). With equity, we estimate how much ANDS cost and benefit for different groups. For assessment, the research used four indicators of TV ownership of population, Access to services like electricity, and Gini index regarding to GDP income per capita to make judgment about benefit distribution among citizens.
Services Accessibility
First, according to Asia Foundation regarding Afghanistan People Survey, the owner of TV in families start from 37% of entire population in 2007, increase yearly reached 58% of entire in 2014, totally 21% growth. In term of access to electricity entirely from both private source and government source shows different numbers regarding to different data sources. According to NRVA reports Afghanistan’s citizens had access from 23.2% in 2005 growth to 69% in 2012 an obviously totally 45.5% during the seven years. Furthermore, based on World Bank Data the accesses to electricity begin with 19% in 2003 and get 69% in 2014 (see Figure 4). Therefore, research assesses the ANDS regarding to service accessibility aspects not completely successful, but in the way of reaching equity.
Figure 4. Services indicators for ANDS; Sources: World Bank 2003-2014; NRVA report 2005, 2008, 2012; Asia Foundation APS report 2007-2014.
Income
In this aspect, this research applies the growth of GDP income per capita among the residents and regarding to that showing the Gini index of the country that illustrate the income equitably distribution, it estimates between (0 - 100), which zero means no injustice and complete equity, hundred means inequality and complete injustice distribution among the society. The income of individuals starts from 182dollar in 2002, reached the pick in 653.4 dollar in 2012, and get 626.5 in 2014 (see Figure 5). To estimate the income distribution among all residents Gini idex rate can illustrate. According to NRVA reports Gini index rate illustrate 27.8 in 2007, 29.7 in 2008, and reached 31.6 in 2012 at the national level. Furthermore, on rural 25.3 in 2008 and 28.1 in 2012, on urban 27.9 in 2008 and 29.2 in 2012, and among Kuchis (unsettlement residents) 25.9 in 2008 and 22.3 in 2012 (see Figure 6). According to the different groups, Gini index rates inequity distribution of income in national wide is quasi-equally in comparison with south Asia and central Asia country. In term of policy decision-making, the Gini index describes how policies can make a difference in the society.
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Figure 5. GDP income per capita; Sources: Ministry of Economic, World Bank 2002-2014.
Figure 6. Afghanistan’s Gini index rate for ANDS; Sources: NRVA, 2008, p57; NRVA, 2013, 53.
4.4. Responsiveness
Do the policy and plan outcomes satisfy the Needs, Preference, and Values of nation? In other word, do the policy priorities attempt to contain citizens’ priorities and needs? To answer for the questions, the quantitative research particularly by surveying people opinion can give data to interpret regarding responsiveness element. The official poll, survey and public opinion poll are appropriate to explore the reaction, needs, want, priority, and satisfaction of people regarding a plan same as ANDS. First, the research used to estimate the general satisfaction of people according to existence survey data, which have the ability to conduct the satisfaction of general opinion on state particularly governmental long-term policy like ANDS.
Services Satisfaction
According to Afghanistan people survey, which provided by Asia Foundation every year, the respondents were asked generally is the country going the right direction including government function and its plan. In the 2007 just 24% of entire were believed country going in wrong direction, in 2011 reached 31%, in 2013 reached 38%, and get pick of 40% in 2014 (see Figure 7). Therefore, it can interpret that the satisfaction was decreased 16% in public opinion. The most important reason for dissatisfaction was insecurity, as they believed. About public service, the majority were satisfied. For instance, people were 45.2% satisfied from healthcare system that provided in Hospitals/Clinics, that had 10 miniutes-5 hours distance from their residency location (AsiaFoundation, 2014: p. 79).
Figure 7. Country direction indicator for ANDS; Sources: Asia foundation APS reports 2007-2014.
In term of public awareness behalf of ANDS projects provided by government, there is the percentage of awareness according to APS. More popular projects until 2014 was drinking water projects with 26%, then agriculture projects with 18%, both governmental electricity supplement and irrigation programs with 14%, both private schools and reconciliation policy with12% finally, private university with 7% awareness (see Figure 8).
Figure 8. Awareness of development projects indicator for ANDS; Sources: Asia Foundation APS report, 2014.
Priority and Preference
According to ANDS exact priority for the country would estimate for further assessment. The ANDP states that the first priority in the provinces was security
Figure 9. Total predicted of budget of pillar/sectors for ANDS; Source: ANDS-II, 2008: p. 50.
Figure 10. National and provincial three important problems; Sources: Asia Foundation APS reports, 2007-2014.
(16.5) among other pillars, as second priority governance (14), and agriculture (12) (ANDS-II, 2008: pp. 22-24). Regarding to the Afghanistan National Development Strategy that predict financial budget for all years from 2008-2013 was 50.1 billion dollar. The budget focused first on infrastructures building with 17,185 million dollar, then security that was first priority of provinces for the country allocated 14,179 million dollar. For education and culture 4872 million dollar, for agriculture and rural development 4486 million dollar, for good governance and rule of law 2985 million, for health and nutrition 2478 million dollar, social protection 1815 million dollar, economic governance and private sector development 1186 million dollar (see Figure 9). In order to assess the coherence of problems and ANDS priority, the surveys from 2007-2014 were conducted could explore the consistency and nation preferences and ANDS preferences. In 2007 the important problem in national level were first insecurity (46%), second unemployment (27%), third corruption (16%), changed in 2014 to first insecurity (34%), second corruption (28%), third unemployment (26%). In provincial level were first unemployment (34%), second electricity (25%), and third road (14%); remained in 2014 to first unemployment (30%), second electricity (24%), and third road (18%) (see Figure 10). The ANDS priority was consisted in security budget priority (see Figure 9 and Figure 10). The unemployment was not consisted between people and government prioritizing. Anti-corruption policies were not sufficient due to the implementation of policies; furthermore, corruption was not among the three important budget priorities of ANDS (see Figure 10). The road and electricity as important part of infrastructure remained as important problem in provinces. Therefore, the responsiveness element assessment reveal that the consistency between ANDS priority and citizens preference exist in security, otherwise did not exist in other problem including unemployment, corruption in national level and lack of access to road and electricity in provinces level.
4.5. Side-Effects
Does ANDS cause large-scale change in socio-cultural structure and environment? The fifth element would answer to the mentioned question. The most important side effect of ANDS was the emerging of middle class in the society. During the last three decades of war and conflict, the middle class was decomposed. Most educated and intellectual citizens immigrated to broad. The first mass refugees returned in 2002 almost 1.8 million. They were educated, skilled, technicians than settlements in the country. During 2002-2014 years 4.8 million refugees returned to the country (UNHCR, 2024). They take part as skeleton of middle class, most of them settlement in the urban and cities including Kabul, Balkh, Herat, Jalal Abad, and Kandahar. Another part of middle class was service worker that near the 25% of labor force was in service sector, which they worked in NGOs, Government, private sectors, and individual based business. The rate of educated citizens (18 - 25 years old) grew up to 45% (see Figure 3). According the Statistics Central Authority 44% of labor force was in agriculture and 14% in constructive. The jobs related to middle class were including services (16%), business (12%), transport and IT (5%), and industry (8%), in addition 0.4 million labors worked in government in both civil service and military section (SCA, 1393: p. 54).
Urbanization is other side-effect of ANDS regarding to the rise of middle class in Afghanistan. According to official, general survey in 1979 from 10% - 12% of population lived in cities (UNIDATA, 1991). After the three decades of war and conflict the urbanization began again, in 2014 the total amount of urban population received 24.6% of the entire population. This factor supports middle class formation in the country (O’Neill, 2024).
The new structure of power was other side effect of ANDS in the socio-economic term. In the first parliament composition of 2005, 50% members were Mujahidin, 25% Democrat, 15% government fun, 5% communist, and 5% Taliban. Then the structure changed in Mujahidin and Technocrats and top level, in follow of them was Traditional elites (clergy + Local elites most tribal) and Contractor of International Community (Farahmand, 2020: pp. 54-55). The competition among of this four group was conducted during the presence of IC and under the influence of ANDS. It was the new formation power structure in new Afghanistan political order since 2002.
The economic growth in term of GDP and its growth rate was another importan side-effect of ANDS in the country. The Afghanistan GDP start from 3.8 billion dollar in 2002, increased rapidlly sixth time until 2014 to 20.5 billion dollar. According to data privided both from national agencies and international agencies released speedy growth rate of GDP in the country. The in 2005 reached 11.2%, in 2007 reached 13.8%, in 2009 picked 21.4%, in 2010 14.4%, and in 2012 reached 12.8% (see Figure 11). In mean economic growth reached double digit growth rate the entire history of the Afghanistan since 1979. Therefore, reseach can interpret the ANDS according the holistic performance assessment-5 element, the side-effect elememt were the rise of new middle class, new structre of power formation, and the double digit GDP growth rate.
Figure 11. The economic growth in term of GDP.
5. Conclusion
In conclusion, the assessment of Afghanistan’s National Development Strategy (ANDS) provides valuable insights into the country’s development trajectory over the past few decades. The ANDS, initiated in 2005 and revised in 2008, represents a significant milestone in Afghanistan’s history of planned development. Despite facing immense challenges stemming from years of conflict, war, and political instability, the ANDS aimed to address critical issues such as poverty, security, governance, and economic development.
The assessment of the ANDS using the holistic performance assessment model (HPA-5) revealed both achievements and areas needing improvement. The ANDS made notable progress in implementing projects and programs, with a substantial portion of the budget sourced from international assistance. This financial support played a crucial role in advancing development initiatives and infrastructure projects across the country.
According to the first element of assessment, the planning tradition was social reform for the most part, but in some cases, the plan was designed based on policy analysis approach. In term of Effectiveness, according to Table 2 from 130 projects, about 80 projects were done. In term of eradication of extreme poverty and hunger, it looks like the under-minimum of dietary energy consumption remained at 30%, and in term of other indicators, the situation was getting worse. In second goal, ANDS made progress, the literacy rate from 28% changed to 45%, and the net primary school enrolment rate from 37% in 2005 changed to 77% in 2012. In term of gender equality, the outcome is estimated to be positive, but the women political participation rate was 25% in 2005, and just made little progress to 26 in 2012. The school enrolment ratio of girl/boy changed from 0.6 to 0.74 in 2012, and the literacy ratio from 0.34 to 0.52. The child mortality in 2008 was 161 per 1000 live birth, became 102 in 2012. The immunization of 1-year-old child from 35% in 2008 changed to 62% in 2012. In term of maternal healthcare make progress but not acceptable. In term of combating HIV/AIDS and Malaria, the prevalence of blood donor from 0.13% in 2005 was reduced to 0.01% in 2012, blood sample screen for HIV/AIDs progressed from 32% to 100%; the malaria total death rate was 46 person in 2008 and reduced to 36 people in 2012. The seventh goal ensuring environmental sustainability was not acceptable. The Co2 emission base on Metric Ton per capita from 0.04 in 2005 increased to two. There were different sources of data about the water accessibility (see Table 8), but showed less progress. The last term was enhancing security. The feeling of personal safety remains at 48% in 2008 and 2012. The number of mine victims per year was reduced from 700 in 2008 to 360 in 2012. The gun crimes reported from 10.7 k changed to 12.6 k in 2012; as a result, the ANDS failed in security goals. The third element shows that the equity was acceptable, in term of service accessibility; for example, access to electricity from 23.2% progressed to 69% in 2012. In term of income distribution, according to the Gini Index in 2007 was 27.8% and made little change to 31.6% in 2012. The fourth element illustrated was that the responsiveness was not acceptable. For example, the citizens believed that country going in wring direction was 24% in 2007, and increased to 40% in 2012. The three important problems in national level were insecurity 46%, unemployment 27%, and corruption 16% in 2007, with remaining insecurity 34%, corruption 28%, and unemployment 26%; as a result, it means the priority and preference of nation was not in consistency with state ANDS. Side-effect as a fifth element of assessment, shows the new middle class shaped due of refugees return, the jobs of labor forces based on Statistics Central Authority data was 42% from labor market. The urbanization increased, the new structure of power formed, and finally the GDP growth rate picked up and doubled number (21.4%) in 2009.
Issues such as inadequate data, lack of experience in implementing complex policy documents, and the need for greater stakeholder engagement emerged as key obstacles to the successful implementation of the strategy.
Moving forward, it is essential for Afghanistan to build on the successes of the ANDS and address the gaps identified through the assessment. By leveraging international support, enhancing data collection and analysis capabilities, and fostering greater collaboration among stakeholders, Afghanistan can work towards achieving sustainable development and stability. Learning from past experiences and adapting strategies to meet the evolving needs of the population will be critical in shaping the country’s development agenda in the years ahead. Ultimately, a comprehensive and inclusive approach to planning and implementation will be key issue to realizing Afghanistan’s development goals and fostering a brighter future for its citizens.
6. Policy Recommendations
Enhancing Data Collection and Management: To gather accurate socio-economic statistics. This infrastructure should facilitate regular updates and ensure data accessibility for policymakers and stakeholders.
Promote Inclusive Policy-Making: Foster greater collaboration among government entities, local communities, civil society organizations, and international partners. Engaging diverse stakeholders will ensure that development strategies reflect the needs and aspirations of all segments of the population.
Enhance Community Policing Initiatives: Foster trust between law enforcement agencies and local communities through community policing efforts that involve citizens in safety initiatives.
Enhancing Consistency: Between the Community Priorities and the National Development Plan by random survey to recognize people’s main challenges and priorities to reflect on the policies.
Acknowledgements
I would like to thank Dr. Keyoomrs Ashterian, Associated Professor of Public Policy Making at the University of Tehran for his valuable consulting during the writing of the paper. I am thankful for the contribution of Mr. Riaz Sediqi, Ex-CEO of the Non-Government Organizations of the Ministry of Economics of Afghanistan in data collecting. Finally, I want to appreciate Mrs. Farahmand, my wife for her love and spiritual support in doing this research.
NOTES
1The program and Projects have done from 2002/11-2013/11.
2Costs of Basic Need.
3Based on Daily 2100 cal/day rate.