Granger Causality Analyses for Climatic Attribution

Alessandro Attanasio, Antonello Pasini, Umberto Triacca

Department of Computer Engineering, Computer Science and Mathematics, University of L’Aquila, L’Aquila, Italy.
Institute of Atmospheric Pollution Research, National Research Council (CNR), Monterotondo Stazione, Rome, Italy.

DOI: 10.4236/acs.2013.34054                

Abstract

This review paper focuses on the application of the Granger causality technique to the study of the causes of recent global warming (a case of climatic attribution). A concise but comprehensive review is performed and particular attention is paid to the direct role of anthropogenic and natural forcings, and to the influence of patterns of natural variability. By analyzing both in-sample and out-of-sample results, clear evidences are obtained (e.g., the major role of greenhousegases radiative forcing in driving temperature, a recent causal decoupling between solar irradiance and temperature itself) together with interesting prospects of further research.

Keywords

Granger Causality; Climatic Attribution; Global Warming; Forcings; Greenhouse Gases; Solar Radiation; Natural Variability

Conflicts of Interest

The authors declare no conflicts of interest.

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