TITLE:
Granger Causality Analyses for Climatic Attribution
AUTHORS:
Alessandro Attanasio, Antonello Pasini, Umberto Triacca
KEYWORDS:
Granger Causality; Climatic Attribution; Global Warming; Forcings; Greenhouse Gases; Solar Radiation; Natural Variability
JOURNAL NAME:
Atmospheric and Climate Sciences,
Vol.3 No.4,
September
16,
2013
ABSTRACT:
This review paper focuses on the application of the Granger
causality technique to the study of the causes of recent global warming (a case
of climatic attribution). A concise but comprehensive review is performed and
particular attention is paid to the direct role of anthropogenic and natural
forcings, and to the influence of patterns
of natural variability. By analyzing both in-sample and out-of-sample
results, clear evidences are obtained (e.g., the major role of greenhousegases
radiative forcing in driving temperature, a recent causal decoupling between solar
irradiance and temperature itself) together with interesting prospects of
further research.