TITLE:
SIR Model of Spread of Zika Virus Infections: ZIKV Linked to Microcephaly Simulations
AUTHORS:
Isack E. Kibona, Cuihong Yang
KEYWORDS:
ZIKV, SIR Model, Microcephaly, Stability Analysis, Simulations
JOURNAL NAME:
Health,
Vol.9 No.8,
August
23,
2017
ABSTRACT: An SIR model of Zika virus (ZIKV) spread is formulated that includes ZIKV infections to newborns. Analytically, the model has one disease free and one endemic equilibrium point. The free one is stable for some conditions when R0 and unstable when R0>1. In Brazil, when R0≈2>1 ZIKV infections expand and for R0 = 0.875R0) of the model. There are parameters for human-mosquito transmission and some for sexual-transmission factor. It appears that controlling spread of ZIKV infections by human-mosquito transmission may greatly reduce the value of R0.