TITLE:
GDP Falls as MBA Rises?
AUTHORS:
T. N. Cummins
KEYWORDS:
Economic Growth; GDP; Correlation Coefficient; Quasi-Experimental Design; Economic Policy; Chow Test; Management; Mental Models; Business History; National Security; Public Goods; MBA; Structural Change
JOURNAL NAME:
Applied Mathematics,
Vol.4 No.10,
October
14,
2013
ABSTRACT:
By charting US GDP growth rates beginning from 1953
through the Bush administration of 2008, an inverted “V” pattern
appears with 1980 as an approximate pivot point. The observable upward trend of
the US economy after WWII and before 1980 coincides with more active public
domestic budgets when compared with budgets after 1980. Political discourse in
the late 20th century suggests an economic policy shift away from public
investments toward private sector interests which may have contributed to
structural changes in the US economy. After charting preand post-1980 US
quarterly GDP data, a fifty-six-year naturally occurring quasi-experimental
design [1] displays two periods of different economic outcomes. By exploring a
plausible contributor to the change in economic trend data using applied math,
concerned parties may begin to map out the unknown unknowns of economic
performance. This paper uses the best linear unbiased estimator of Gauss and
Markov to quantify economic rates of growth in each period. Pearson’s correlation
coefficient attempts to characterize mathematically the impact of systemic
political change on US economic performance. Finally, a Chow
test confirms structural change is afoot. With the help of statistical
analysis, this paper explores if the increase in US business majors since
1980 has or has not delivered ever improving US GDP growth from 1980-2008. This
work is important as the economic health of a nation over the long run allows
nations to protect and provide for their citizens.