TITLE:
Future Changes in Temperature and Precipitation Extremes in the State of Rio de Janeiro (Brazil)
AUTHORS:
Wanderson Luiz Silva, Claudine Dereczynski, Sin Chan Chou, Iracema Cavalcanti
KEYWORDS:
Climate Change, Climatic Extremes, Future Projections, Temperature, Precipitation, Rio de Janeiro
JOURNAL NAME:
American Journal of Climate Change,
Vol.3 No.4,
December
8,
2014
ABSTRACT: In this study, we document the air temperature and precipitation changes
between present-day conditions and those projected for the period 2041-2070 in
the state of Rio de Janeiro (Brazil) by means of Eta driven by HadCM3 climate
model output, considering the variation among its four ensemble members. The
main purpose is to support studies of vulnerability and adaptation policy to
climate change. In relation to future projections of temperature extremes, the
model indicates an increase in average minimum (maximum) temperature of between
+1.1°C and +1.4°C (+1.0°C and +1.5°C) in the state by 2070, and it could reach
maximum values of between +2.0°C and +3.5°C (+2.5°C and +4.5°C). The model
projections also indicate that cold nights and days will be much less frequent
in Rio de Janeiro by 2070, while there will be significant increases in warm
nights and days. With respect to annual total rainfall, the Northern Region of
Rio de Janeiro displays the greatest variation among members, indicating
changes ranging from a decrease of -350 mm to an increase of +300 mm during the
21st century. The southern portion of the state has the largest increase in annual
total rainfall occurring due to heavy rains, ranging from +50 to +300 mm in the
period 2041-2070. Consecutive dry days will increase, which indicates poorly
time distributed rainfall, with increased rainfall concentrated over shorter
time periods.