Future Changes in Temperature and Precipitation Extremes in the State of Rio de Janeiro (Brazil)

Wanderson Luiz Silva^1*, Claudine Dereczynski¹, Sin Chan Chou², Iracema Cavalcanti²

¹Department of Meteorology, Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.
²Center for Weather Forecasting and Climate Research, National Institute of Space Research, Paulista, Brazil.

DOI: 10.4236/ajcc.2014.34031                

Abstract

In this study, we document the air temperature and precipitation changes between present-day conditions and those projected for the period 2041-2070 in the state of Rio de Janeiro (Brazil) by means of Eta driven by HadCM3 climate model output, considering the variation among its four ensemble members. The main purpose is to support studies of vulnerability and adaptation policy to climate change. In relation to future projections of temperature extremes, the model indicates an increase in average minimum (maximum) temperature of between +1.1°C and +1.4°C (+1.0°C and +1.5°C) in the state by 2070, and it could reach maximum values of between +2.0°C and +3.5°C (+2.5°C and +4.5°C). The model projections also indicate that cold nights and days will be much less frequent in Rio de Janeiro by 2070, while there will be significant increases in warm nights and days. With respect to annual total rainfall, the Northern Region of Rio de Janeiro displays the greatest variation among members, indicating changes ranging from a decrease of -350 mm to an increase of +300 mm during the 21st century. The southern portion of the state has the largest increase in annual total rainfall occurring due to heavy rains, ranging from +50 to +300 mm in the period 2041-2070. Consecutive dry days will increase, which indicates poorly time distributed rainfall, with increased rainfall concentrated over shorter time periods.

Keywords

Climate Change, Climatic Extremes, Future Projections, Temperature, Precipitation, Rio de Janeiro

Conflicts of Interest

The authors declare no conflicts of interest.

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