Forecast of Power Generation for Grid-Connected Photo-voltaic System Based on Grey Theory and Verification Model

Ying-zi Li, Jin-cang Niu, Li Li

Beijing Electric Power Corporation, Beijing, P. R. China.
Beijing Huaxing Hengye Electric Equipment Co.Ltd, Beijing, P. R. China.
College of Information and Electrical Engineering, Beijing University of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Beijing, P. R. China.

DOI: 10.4236/epe.2013.54B034                

Abstract

Being photovoltaic power generation affected by radiation strength, wind speed, clouds cover and environment temperature, the generating in each moment is fluctuating. The operational characteristics of grid-connected PV systems are coincided with gray theory application conditions. A gray theory model has been applied in short-term forecast of grid-connected photovoltaic system. The verification model of the probability of small error will help to check the accuracy of the gray forecast results. The calculated result shows that the  model accuracy has been greatly enhanced.

Keywords

Forecast of Power Generation; Grid-connected Photovoltaic System; Data Discretization; Greedy Algorithm; Continuous Attributes; Rough Sets

Conflicts of Interest

The authors declare no conflicts of interest.

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