Author(s)

Fumio Maruyama

Department of Sports and Health Science, Matsumoto University, Matsumoto, Japan.

Extreme value theory provides methods to analyze the most extreme parts of data. We used the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution to predict the human lifespan in the world and Japan. The diagnostic plots, which assessed the accuracy of the GEV model, were fitted to the human lifespan, validating the model. The human lifespan in the world and Japan had shape parameters of ?0.1623 and ?0.2949 and had an upper limit. The calculated upper limit in the world was 128.7 years. The world’s oldest record holder, Jeanne Calment’s age of 122.45 years, was close to the 260-year return level and was far from the calculated upper limit. The calculated upper limit in Japan was 120.4 years. Japan’s oldest record holder, Kane Tanaka’s age of 119 years in 2022, was the 500-year return level and was close to the upper limit. In the world, achieving the calculated limit was difficult, but the human lifespan will soon reach the upper limit in Japan.

Human Lifespan, Extreme Value Theory, GEV Model

Maruyama, F. (2022) An Analysis of the Maximum Lifespan in the World and Japan. Journal of Biosciences and Medicines, 10, 254-262. doi: 10.4236/jbm.2022.104021.