Author(s)

Keigo Ohshima, Kayoko Yamamoto^*

Graduate School of Informatics and Engineering, University of Electro-Communications, Tokyo, Japan.

The present study aims to conduct 2 types of statistical analysis to reveal the impact of the spread of COVID-19 on train delays by comparing the potential contributing factors before, during and after the outbreak of the virus in the metropolitan train lines in Japan. First of all, the result of the present study clearly revealed the changes in contributing factors for train delays caused by the spread of COVID-19. Specifically, the contributing factors for train delays changed due to the decrease of passengers by the effect of the outbreak of the virus. Additionally, though large terminal stations were considered to be a major contributing factor in causing and increasing train delays in the past, this was not the case after the spread of COVID-19. Therefore, under such conditions, it is more effective to make improvements in small to medium stations and tracks rather than terminal stations. Furthermore, as the decrease in passengers also decreased train delays in commuter lines going to the suburbs due to the spread of COVID-19, the contributing factor for such lines is the excessive number of passengers. Therefore, as for countermeasures for train delays after the effects of COVID-19, it is necessary to disperse passengers in order to avoid passengers concentrating in the same time zones and train lines.

Train Delay, Morning Rush Hour, Train Line Network, COVID-19, Statistical Analysis, Standard Multiple Regression Analysis, Logistic Regression Analysis

Ohshima, K. and Yamamoto, K. (2021) Contributing Factors for Delays during the Morning Commute Hours and the Impact of the Spread of COVID-19 for Metropolitan Train Lines in Japan. Journal of Transportation Technologies, 11, 519-544. doi: 10.4236/jtts.2021.114033.