TITLE:
Prospects for Renewable and Fossil-Based Electricity Generation in a Carbon-Constrained World
AUTHORS:
Takayuki Takeshita
KEYWORDS:
Renewable Power Sources; Fossil Power Sources; CO2 Mitigation; Regionally Detailed Analysis; Global Energy System Model
JOURNAL NAME:
International Journal of Clean Coal and Energy,
Vol.2 No.2B,
July
24,
2013
ABSTRACT: In this paper, a regionally
disaggregated global energy system model with a detailed treatment of the
electricity supply sector is used to derive the cost-optimal choice of electricity generation
technologies for each of 70 world regions over the period 2010-2050 under a
constraint of halving global energy-related CO2 emissions in 2050
compared to the 2000 level. It is first shown that the long-term global
electricity generation mix under the CO2constraint becomes highly diversified,
which includes coal, natural gas, nuclear, biomass, hydro, geothermal, onshore
and offshore wind, solar photovoltaics (PV), and concentrated solar power
(CSP). In this carbon-constrained world, 89.9% of the electricity generation
from coal, natural gas, and biomass is combined with CO2capture and
storage (CCS) in 2050. It is then shown that the long-term electricity
generation mix under the CO2constraint varies significantly by
world region. Fossil fuels with CCS enter the long-term electricity generation
mix in all world regions. In contrast, there is a sharp regional difference in
the renewable generation technology of choice in the long term. For example,
the world regions suitable for PV plants include the US, Western Europe, Japan,
Korea, and China, while those suitable for CSP plants include the Middle East,
Africa, Australia, and western Asia. Offshore wind is deployed on a large scale
in the UK, Ireland, Nordic countries, the southern part of Latin America, and
Japan.