TITLE:
Comparative Analysis of Drought Trends in the Sahelian and Soudanian Zones of Mali: Case Study of Cinzana and Kola
AUTHORS:
Ousmane Mohamed Maiga, Lassina Dit Papa Koné, Alikalifa Sanogo, Youssouf Siby, Issouf Coulibaly, Massitan B. Dembélé
KEYWORDS:
Climate Change, Climate Trends, Drought, Sahel, Sudanian, SPEI, SPI, Variability
JOURNAL NAME:
American Journal of Climate Change,
Vol.14 No.4,
December
9,
2025
ABSTRACT: Understanding hydroclimatic variability in the Sahel and Sudanian zones is critical for improving climate resilience and resource management. This study presents a comparative analysis of drought dynamics in two representative agroecological sites of Mali Cinzana (Sahelian zone) and Kola (Sudanian zone) over the period 1994-2022. Using meteorological data, drought characteristics were assessed through the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), complemented by trend detection methods (Mann-Kendall, Sen’s slope) and the Pettitt test for structural breaks. Results reveal marked local divergences despite the geographical proximity of the sites. At Cinzana, rainfall and temperature trends were not statistically significant, although a positive and significant trend in SPEI-12 suggests a tendency toward wetter annual conditions consistent with the Sahelian “regreening” observed since the 1990s. In contrast, Kola exhibited a statistically significant warming, particularly in minimum temperature (+0.057˚C/year, p