TITLE:
Causes and Relationships between Pine Delivered and Stumpage Prices in the Southern U.S.
AUTHORS:
Maciej D. Misztal, Jacek P. Siry, Bin Mei, Thomas G. Harris Jr., James M. Bowker
KEYWORDS:
Timber Markets, Timber Prices, Granger Causality, Cointegration
JOURNAL NAME:
Open Journal of Forestry,
Vol.16 No.1,
November
28,
2025
ABSTRACT: Data included quarterly stumpage and delivered pine prices across 11 states in the U.S. South. Data from all states were available in two regions. The first analysis used Granger causality to determine whether stumpage prices were determined by delivered prices or the opposite. Granger causality tests accounted (ACC) for or ignored (IGN) breaks and seasons. For sawtimber, with either ACC or IGN, 32% of regions had significant delivered-to-stumpage price causality, and 82% of regions had stumpage-to-delivered price causality. For pulpwood, similar percentages were obtained with IGN, but with ACC, the percentages changed to 27% and 36%, respectively. Effects of several factors on stumpage and delivered prices, and their differences, were determined for the largest region, Georgia 2. None of the factors was significant for all prices. Mining/logging wages and housing starts in the Midwest were significant for stumpage and delivered prices. Industrial production and average hourly wage construction were significant for the differences. Industrial production was significant for delivered but not stumpage prices. Conversely, the 10-year treasury rate was significant for stumpage but not for delivered prices. Delivered prices generally affect more stumpage prices, although the causality may be season and break dependent. In general, various factors affect stumpage and delivered prices and their difference, separately for sawtimber and pulpwood.