TITLE:
Spatial and Temporal Variability of Solar Irradiance in Botswana
AUTHORS:
Isiah Tefo Kazapua, Yueyue Yu, Meijia Hu, Jin Liu
KEYWORDS:
Solar Irradiance, Botswana, Cloud Cover, Photo-Voltaic Systems, K-Means Clustering, EEMD
JOURNAL NAME:
Journal of Geoscience and Environment Protection,
Vol.12 No.11,
November
28,
2024
ABSTRACT: This study evaluated the potential of Botswana’s sustainable energy production using ERA5 reanalysis data of solar irradiance variability on an optimally inclined plane from 1971 to 2020. Spatial-temporal solar irradiance fluctuations were the focus of the study, and the relation to cloud cover and aerosol optical depth was investigated. The key findings suggest that the summer/rainfall season (November to March) is the peak season with average monthly solar irradiance of 313 - 445 W/m2 across southern, central, and northern parts of Botswana, the Kalahari Desert and the Makgadikgadi Pans being identified as prime sites for solar energy projects. The long-term trend analysis showed a decrease in solar irradiance in December but a consistent increase from August to October, indicating a potential shift in solar resources toward an earlier season. Contrary to other studies that found that aerosol optical depth dominates effects on long-term trends and year-to-year variability of solar irradiance, for this case, cloud cover, particularly mid-level clouds, is found to have a more dominant role in Botswana. Solar irradiance characteristics of three distinct regions were identified through K-means clustering. Moreover, Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) analysis showed the commonality and time scale linkage between solar irradiance and cloud cover between the identified regions. These results highlight the importance of including cloud-related weather patterns under the global warming scenario in solar energy planning and emphasize the secondary role of aerosols in Botswana, thus providing critical information for the region’s solar energy development and policy formulation.