TITLE:
Oil Forecasting Using Artificial Intelligence
AUTHORS:
Andreas Karathanasopoulos, Adam Zaremba, Mohammed Osman, Mateusz Mikutowski
KEYWORDS:
Future Contract, Crude Oil, Deep Beliefs, ANFIS Model
JOURNAL NAME:
Theoretical Economics Letters,
Vol.9 No.7,
September
19,
2019
ABSTRACT: The motivation for this research paper is the
application of two novel models in the prediction of crude oil index. The first
model is a generic deep belief network and the second model is an adaptive
neural fuzzy inference system. Furthermore we have to emphasize on the second contribution in this paper which is the use
of an extensive number of inputs including mixed and autoregressive inputs.
Both proposed methodologies have been used in the past in different problems
such as face recognition, prediction of chromosome anomalies etch, providing higher outputs
than usual. For comparison purposes, the forecasting statistical and empirical
accuracy of models is benchmarked with traditional strategies such as a naive strategy, a moving average convergence divergence model and an
autoregressive moving average model. As it turns out, the proposed novel
techniques produce higher statistical and empirical results outperforming the
other linear models. Concluding first time such research work brings such outstanding outputs in terms of forecasting oil
markets.