TITLE:
Modeling Accidents on Mashhad Urban Highways
AUTHORS:
Esmaeel Ayati, Ehsan Abbasi
KEYWORDS:
Accidents; Modeling; Urban Highways; Traffic Flow; Zero-Inflated Regression Models
JOURNAL NAME:
Open Journal of Safety Science and Technology,
Vol.4 No.1,
March
11,
2014
ABSTRACT: In recent years,
numerous researches have been carried out with purpose of predicting motor
vehicle crashes on transportation facilities as freeways and urban or rural
highways. Accident process can be modeled
successfully with assuming a dual-state data-generating process. Based on this
assumption, road components like intersections or road segments have two states
of perfectly safe and unsafe. Zero-inflated regression models are applied to
model accidents usually in cases of preponderance of excess zero data in crash
data. We handle in this research, the investigation into effective factors on
frequency and severity of accidents on urban highways and use crash data of Mash
had-Iran urban highways as a case study. We use in this study, the Poisson,
Negative binomial, Zero-inflated Poisson and Zero-inflated Negative binomial
regression models for modeling accidents, and traffic flow and road geometry
related variables as in dependent variables of models. In addition to
identifying effective factors on crash occurrence probability, we deal with
comparison of models, evaluate and prove the efficiency of Zero-inflated
regression models against traditional Poisson and Negative binomial models.