TITLE:
Levant Drought Occurrence, Lebanon Case
AUTHORS:
Ihab Jomaa, Mariam Choker, Nisrine El Haj, Marie Therese Abi Saab, Matteo Funaro, Simone Mereu
KEYWORDS:
Climate Change, Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Beirut, Rainfall Gag-es
JOURNAL NAME:
Atmospheric and Climate Sciences,
Vol.14 No.1,
January
19,
2024
ABSTRACT: Rainfall data is probably one of the longest-recorded
climatic parameters in Lebanon. On the central coast of Lebanon, the Beirut
weather station started collecting rainfall data in 1876. However, the recorded
data is not available at one data provider source. Published data is found in
historical documents but it reaches the early 1970s and then appears a data gap
till 1990. Still the data is available, but it might be found to be saved
privately. This study investigated the SPI variability on annual time scale
between the years 1876 and 2021. The SPI was computed using R-Stat software to
compare every year between 1876 and 2021. The majority (about 70% of the years)
of the years are near normal in the precipitation rate. The Standardized
Precipitation Index (SPI) demonstrated a normal distribution of years. Dry and
wet years constitute about 15% of the total 146 years (1876-2021). Extremely
dry years might appear in two consecutive years between 50 to 60 years count.
After 1991, there were no wet years it was only near normal and few dry years.
The last 30 years showed a trend of increasing drought years without any
occurrence of wet years. This study demonstrated the importance of keeping
records of at least rainfall data and it must be recorded on a daily basis or
intensity on time. It is highly important on a managerial basis and for water
security reasons to understand the drought event occurrence and investigate the
changes in rainfall rates. Climate change scenarios always forecast a decrease
in rainfall rates which will not appear without such studies.