TITLE:
Human Development and Life Expectancy Perfectly Predict Inflation
AUTHORS:
Gordon Bechtel
KEYWORDS:
Federal Reserve, Consumer Price Index, Trans-Century Inflation, Data Endemicity, Gaussian-Least-Squares Regression
JOURNAL NAME:
Open Journal of Social Sciences,
Vol.10 No.10,
September
19,
2022
ABSTRACT: In 2022 the Federal Reserve, economists, and stock market traders railed
about “the worst inflation in 100 years”. The present article updates this
alarm by demonstrating that human development and global life expectancy alone predict 99.66% of the American CPI before the shocks of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Ukraine war, and recession, suggesting that inflation
may be an uncontrollable phenomenon. The present article regresses and
correlates the American Consumer Price Index
on 11 global assets over the trans-century period 1991-2017. The
Gaussian R2s exceed .9000 and the correlations exceed .9200,
suggesting that human development and global life expectancy have raised
consumer affluence, demand, and prices over this modern period.