TITLE: 
                        
                            Peaks over Manifold (POM): A Novel Technique to Analyze Extreme Events over Surfaces
                                
                                
                                    AUTHORS: 
                                            Gonzalo Perera, Angel M. Segura 
                                                    
                                                        KEYWORDS: 
                        Peaks Over Thresholds (POT), Generalized Pareto Distribution, Extreme Events 
                                                    
                                                    
                                                        JOURNAL NAME: 
                        Advances in Pure Mathematics,  
                        Vol.12 No.1, 
                        January
                                                        27,
                        2022
                                                    
                                                    
                                                        ABSTRACT: We present a novel method to analyze extreme events of flows over manifolds called Peaks Over Manifold (POM). Here we show that under general and realistic hypotheses, the distribution of affectation measures converges to a Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD). The method is applicable to floods, ice cover extent, extreme rainfall or marine heatwaves. We present an application to a synthetic data set on tide height and to real ice cover data in Antartica.