TITLE:
Determinants of Exchange Rate: Vector Error Correction Method (VECM). Case of Yemen
AUTHORS:
Ghassan Al-Masbhi, Yulan Du
KEYWORDS:
Exchange Rate, Current Account Balance, Inflation Rate, GDP Growth, Interest Rate, VECM Model
JOURNAL NAME:
Open Journal of Social Sciences,
Vol.9 No.8,
August
4,
2021
ABSTRACT: This paper examines the potential determinants of the exchange rate in
Yemen. Different econometric tests were applied to examine the impact of the
exchange rate on the inflation rate, the current account balance, GDP growth,
and interest rate from 1998 to 2020. Findings show variables are stationary at
first difference I(1). Johansen’s cointegration test approved the existence of
the long-term relationship. According to the VECM test, the variables share a
long-run relationship. There is also a short-run association of the exchange
rate with inflation and interest rate. The Granger causality test implies that
the exchange rate granger causes interest rate and inflation rate. Furthermore,
diagnostic tests were performed to check the results’ reliability, which shows
the findings are consistent. Moreover, the study also suggests that these
findings contribute to policymakers and government officials’ understanding of
the exchange rate fluctuation. It will also show the significant impact of the
exchange rate on these variables in Yemen and other developing countries with a similar economic system. The research also
provides suggestions to promote development sustainability in Yemen.