van den Driessche, P. and Watmough, J. (2007) Reproduction Numbers and Sub-Threshold Endemic Equilibria for Compartmental Models of Disease Transmission. Mathematical Biosciences, 196, 1679-1684.
ABSTRACT: In this paper we present a highly pathogenic Avian influenza epidemic model with saturated contact rate. According to study of the dynamics, we calculated the basic reproduction number of the model. Through the analysis of this model, we have the following conclusion: if R0 ≤ 1, there is only one disease-free equilibrium which is globally stable, the disease will die; if R0 > 1, there is only one endemic equilibrium which is globally stable, disease will be popular.