TITLE:
Modelling Impacts of Climate Change on Maize (Zea mays L.) Growth and Productivity: A Review of Models, Outputs and Limitations
AUTHORS:
Benjamin Kipkemboi Kogo, Lalit Kumar, Richard Koech, Philip Langat
KEYWORDS:
Crop Modelling, Climate Scenarios, Maize, Simulation, GCM
JOURNAL NAME:
Journal of Geoscience and Environment Protection,
Vol.7 No.8,
August
13,
2019
ABSTRACT: The use of crop modelling in various cropping
systems and environments to project and upscale agronomic decision-making under
the facets of climate change has gained currency in
recent years. This paper provides an evaluation of crop models that have been
used by researchers to simulate maize growth and productivity. Through a
systematic review approach, a comprehensive assessment of 186 published
articles was carried out to establish the models and parameterization features, simulated impacts on maize yields
and adaptation strategies in the last three decades. Of the 23 models
identified, CERES-maize and APSIM models were the most dominant, representing
49.7% of the studies undertaken between 1990 and 2018. Current research shows projected decline in maize yields of between 8% - 38% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios by the end of the 21st century, and that adaptation is essential in
alleviating the impacts of climate change. Major agro-adaptation options
considered in most papers are changes in planting dates, cultivars and crop water management practices. The use of multiple crop models
and multi-model ensembles from general circulation models (GCMs) is recommended. As interest in crop modelling grows, future work should
focus more on suitability of agricultural lands for maize production under climate
scenarios.