The Study of Overhead Line Fault Probability Model Based on Fuzzy Theory


In the background of the design and construction of Smart Grid Operation Supporting System for District Power Networks, this paper established the weighted fault probability model of the overhead line which is based on equipment operating status, utility theory and fuzzy theory. In this model, the proper membership function is adopted to describe the influence of lightning, wind speed, line ice and temperature, and the outage rate of overhead line, derived from historical statistics, is amended. Based on this model, the power supply risk analysis software is developed to calculate the online risk indicators of district grid, and provide real-time decision support information based on risk theory for scheduling operations personnel.

Share and Cite:

J. Li, L. Chen, D. Zhao and Y. Luo, "The Study of Overhead Line Fault Probability Model Based on Fuzzy Theory," Energy and Power Engineering, Vol. 5 No. 4B, 2013, pp. 625-629. doi: 10.4236/epe.2013.54B121.

Conflicts of Interest

The authors declare no conflicts of interest.


[1] CIGRE Task Force 38.03.12. “Power System Security Assessment,” Electra, Vol. 175, 1997, pp. 49-77.
[2] H. Wan, J. D. Mccalley and V. Vittal, “Increasing Thermal Rating by Risk Analysis,” IEEE Tran-saci on Power Systems, Vol. 14, No. 3, 1999, pp. 815-828. doi:10.1109/59.780891
[3] W.-H. Fu, J. D. McCalley and V. Vittal, “Risk Assessment for Transformer Loading,” IEEE Transacti on Power Systems, Vol. 16, No. 3, 2001, pp. 346-353. doi:10.1109/59.932267
[4] Y. Q. Feng,W. C. Wu, H. B. Sun, et a1., “A Preliminary Investigation on Power System Operation Risk Evaluation in the Modern Energy Control Center,” Proceedings of the CSEE, Vol. 25, No. 13, 2005, pp. 73-79.
[5] N. Ming, J. D. McCalley, V. Vittal, et a1., “Online risk-based security assessment,” IEEE Transacti on Power Systems, Vol. 18, No. 1, 2003, pp. 258-265. doi:10.1109/TPWRS.2002.807091

Copyright © 2024 by authors and Scientific Research Publishing Inc.

Creative Commons License

This work and the related PDF file are licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.