A Revised Fair Plan to Safeguard Earth’s Climate

Michael E. Schlesinger, Michael J. Ring, Emily F. Cross

Climate Research Group, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, USA.

DOI: 10.4236/jep.2012.310151                

Abstract

In our original study we crafted trajectories for developed and developing countries that phased-out greenhouse gas emissions during 2015-2065 such that the maximum global warming does not exceed the 2℃ threshold adopted by the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, and the cumulative emissions for developed and developing countries are identical. Here we examine the effects of increasing the start year from 2015 to 2030 in 5-year intervals, and the phase-out period from 50 to 100 years in 10-year intervals. We find that phase-out during 2020-2100 is optimal. This phase-out increases the year of peak emission from 2015 to 2030 for developed countries and from 2042 to 2053 for developing countries. It also increases the time from peak emissions to zero emissions from 50 to 70 years for developed countries and from 23 to 47 years for developing countries. Both outcomes should facilitate agreement of the Revised Fair Plan by the UNFCCC.

Keywords

Climate Change; Global Warming; Greenhouse-Gas Emissions; Mitigation

Conflicts of Interest

The authors declare no conflicts of interest.

References

[1]	United Nations, “United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change,” 1992. http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/convkp/conveng.pdf
[2]	Council of the European Union, “Presidency Conclusions,” 2005. http://register.consilium.europa.eu/pdf/en/05/st07/st07619-re01.en05.pdf
[3]	United Nations, “Report of the Conference of the Parties on Its Sixteenth Session. Addendum Part Two: Action taken by the Conference of the Parties at its sixteenth session,” 2010. http://unfccc.int/meetings/cancun_nov_2010/meeting/6266/php/view/reports.php
[4]	M. E. Schlesinger, M. J. Ring and E. F. Cross, “A Fair Plan for Safeguarding Earth’s Climate,” Journal of Environmental Protection, Vol. 3, No. 6, 2012, pp. 455-461.doi:10.4236/jep.2012.36055.
[5]	United Nations, “Report of the Conference of the Parties on its Seventeenth Session. Addendum Part Two: Action taken by the Conference of the Parties at its seventeenth session,” 2011. http://unfccc.int/documentation/documents/advanced_search/items/6911.php?priref=600006773