Author(s)

Carlos Pateiro- Rodríguez¹, Esther Barros- Campello¹, Laura Varela Candamio¹, Carlos Pateiro- López²

¹Faculty of Economics and Business, University of A Coruña, A Coruña, Spain.
²Law School, University of A Coruña, A Coruña, Spain.

In this paper, the evolution of the various components of the broad monetary aggregate M3 at which the ECB attaches leading indicator properties of inflation expectations in the euro area is studied. During the fifteen years that the ECB defines and executes the stability-oriented monetary policy, M3 has not followed the developments that initially would be compatible with the inflation target announced. For its part, the components of the aggregate, in terms of their participation in it, have followed different paths. In this paper, an analysis of stationarity and cointegration of the series is done. The causes of such behavior in the light of the evolution of prices, interest rates and economic growth are searched, using dummy variables for periods of greater instability in the financial markets. We employ the Dynamic Ordinary Least Square (DOLS) estimator, augmenting the estimated relation with lead and lag differences of the explanatory variables to control for endogeneity and serial correlation of the regressors.

Monetary Aggregates, ECB, Interest Rates, Monetary Policy

Rodríguez, C. , Campello, E. , Candamio, L. and López, C. (2016) The Behavior of the Components of M3 in the Euro Area: 1999-2014. Open Journal of Business and Management, 4, 606-620. doi: 10.4236/ojbm.2016.44062.