Author(s)

Bakayoko Hillihase^1,2*, N’Gouan Emmanuel-Joël Abrou¹, Venance-Pâques Gniayou Kouadio³, Adjo Estelle Genevieve Adiko¹, Constant Yves Adou Yao^1,2,4

¹Natural Environments and Biodiversity Conservation Laboratory, UFR Biosciences, University of Felix Houphouet-Boigny, Abidjan, Côte d’Ivoire.
²Biology, Environment, Health Doctoral School, University of Felix Houphouet-Boigny, Abidjan, Côte d’Ivoire.
³Department of Plant Biology, UFR Biological Sciences, Peleforo Gon Coulibaly University, Korhogo, Côte d’Ivoire.
⁴Swiss Center for Scientific Research in Côte d’Ivoire (CSRS), Abidjan, Côte d’Ivoire.

Although mega-trees represent only a small proportion of the flora in the various forest ecosystems, they provide the bulk of ecosystem services. However, their degradation, accentuated by strong and changing climatic and ecological constraints, is intensifying under the impact of human activities. With this in mind, this study was carried out to analyse the potential effect of climate change on their geographical distribution. To this end, surface surveys of 2500 m² and itinerant surveys were carried out in the Azagny National Park. Based on occurrence data collected from literature reviews and online databases (GBIF, RAINBIO), and environmental variables (bioclimatic and edaphic), ecological niche models were established under two climate scenarios (SSP245 and SSP585) for 2070. The study revealed that 49 mega-tree species were identified, including five predominant mega-tree species using the importance value index (IVI). The results also show that these five species are highly preponderant in current habitats in southern Côte d’Ivoire. In addition, there was a general reduction in highly favourable habitats in the State Forest Domains under the SSP585 scenario. The Random Forest method proved to be the most effective in the modelling. The study provides essential information for the conservation and adaptive planning of forest resources in the face of climate change.

Spatial Distribution, Mega-Trees, Modelling, Species Importance Value

Hillihase, B., Abrou, N. E.-J., Kouadio, V.-P. G., Adiko, A. E. G. and Adou Yao, C. Y. (2026) Modelling the Ecological Niche of the Five Predominant Mega-Trees Species and Their Implications for the Management of the Azagny National Park in the Southern Côte d’Ivoire. Open Journal of Forestry, 16, 1-19. doi: 10.4236/ojf.2026.161001.