Author(s)

Fabien Habiyakare^1,2*, Tong Jiang^3#, Ibrahim Yahaya^1,4, Daudi Ndabagenga¹, James Kagabo^1,2, Buda Su^3#

¹School of Atmospheric Sciences, Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education, Collaborative Innovation, Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China.
²Rwanda Meteorology Agency (Meteo Rwanda), Kigali, Rwanda.
³Institute for Disaster Risk Management/School of Geographical Sciences, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing, China.
⁴Department of Geography, Gombe State University, Gombe State, Nigeria.

This study comprehensively examines the patterns and regional variation of severe rainfall across the African continent, employing a suite of eight extreme precipitation indices. The analysis extends to the assessment of projected changes in precipitation extremes using five General Circulation Models (GCMs) from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) scenarios at the long-term period (2081-2100) of the 21^st century. Furthermore, the study investigates potential mechanisms influencing precipitation extremes by correlating extreme precipitation indices with oceanic system indices, specifically Ni?o 3.4 for El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Dipole Mode Index (DMI) for the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). The findings revealed distinct spatial distributions in mean trends of extreme precipitation indices, indicating a tendency toward decreased extreme precipitation in North Africa, Sahel region, Central Africa and the Western part of South Africa. Conversely, West Africa, East Africa and the Eastern part of South Africa exhibit an inclination toward increased extreme precipitation. The changes in precipitation extreme indices indicate a general rise in both the severity and occurrence of extreme precipitation events under all scenarios by the end of the 21^st century. Notably, our analysis projects a decrease in consecutive wet days (CWD) in the far-future. Additionally, correlation analysis highlights significant correlation between above or below threshold rainfall fluctuation in East Africa and South Africa with oceanic systems, particularly ENSO and the IOD. Central Africa abnormal precipitation variability is also linked to ENSO with a significant negative correlation. These insights contribute valuable information for understanding and projecting the dynamics of precipitation extreme in Africa, providing a foundation for climate adaptation and mitigation efforts in the region.

Extreme Precipitation, Mann-Kendall Trend, Projections, Oceanic System, Africa

Habiyakare, F. , Jiang, T. , Yahaya, I. , Ndabagenga, D. , Kagabo, J. and Su, B. (2024) Spatial Variation and Trend of Extreme Precipitation in Africa during 1981-2019 and Its Projected Changes at the End of 21^st Century. Journal of Geoscience and Environment Protection, 12, 192-221. doi: 10.4236/gep.2024.123012.