American Journal of Industrial and Business Management

Volume 9, Issue 4 (April 2019)

ISSN Print: 2164-5167   ISSN Online: 2164-5175

Google-based Impact Factor: 0.92  Citations  

Modeling and Forecasting of Ghana’s Inflation Volatility

HTML  XML Download Download as PDF (Size: 2755KB)  PP. 930-949  
DOI: 10.4236/ajibm.2019.94064    825 Downloads   2,134 Views  Citations

ABSTRACT

In this paper, we assessed volatility of Ghana’s inflation rates for 2000 to 2018 using the auto-regressive conditionally heteroskedasticity (ARCH), generalized ARCH (GARCH), and the exponential GARCH (EGARCH) models. The inflation data were obtained from the Ghana Statistical Service (GSS). The proposed model should be able to provide projections of inflation volatility from 2019 and beyond. The results showed that higher order models are required to properly explain Ghana’s inflation volatility and the EGARCH(12, 1) is the best fitting model for the data. The EGARCH(12, 1) model is robust to model and forecast volatility of inflation rates. Also, the results suggest that we are forecasting increasing volatility and there is increasing trend in general prices of goods and services for 2018 and beyond. The forecasts figures revealed that Ghana’s economy is likely to be unstable in 2018 and 2019. This study therefore recommends that policy makers and industry players need to put in place stringent monetary and fiscal policies that would put the anticipated increase in inflation under control. The models were implemented using R software.

Share and Cite:

Iddrisu, A. , Otoo, D. , Abdul, I. and Ankamah, S. (2019) Modeling and Forecasting of Ghana’s Inflation Volatility. American Journal of Industrial and Business Management, 9, 930-949. doi: 10.4236/ajibm.2019.94064.

Copyright © 2024 by authors and Scientific Research Publishing Inc.

Creative Commons License

This work and the related PDF file are licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.