ABSTRACT
In the context of the central government’s policies
on housing prices themed on “adjust
measures to local conditions and classifying macro-control”, it is of great
significance to study the convergence and the differences of housing prices.
Taking the urban area of Guangdong province as an economic unit, this paper
explores the spatial heterogeneity of housing price in Guangdong Province
during 1995-2014 and the spatial heterogeneity of its impact factors by means
of ESDA and GWR models. The study found that the spatial structure of housing
prices in the region shows a certain circle structure, while the housing prices
in the Pearl River Delta region are relatively high, there is a big difference
in housing prices between Zhongshan, Huizhou and other cities. In most of the
cities in eastern, western and northern Guangdong, the price of housing is low,
which is extremely different from the price of housing of cities in the Pearl
River Delta, there is also a huge difference between the housing price of
Shantou and that of its surrounding cities. The influencing factors of housing
prices in different cities show a localized characteristic of unbalanced
linkage. The
difference between the impact of GDP per capita and the floor space of
buildings completed on housing prices is the largest in the two time sections.
In the middle and late time of the real estate development, the relevancy degree between
housing prices and GDP per capita is no longer obvious, and is more affected by
the urbanization rate and population migration, especially in western
Guangdong. The completion of housing area and loan balance has the greatest sensitivity to
urban housing prices in western Guangdong. The former has the least sensitivity
to the Pearl River Delta region. The latter has the least sensitivity to
housing price in eastern Guangdong Province. The amount of the investment in
real estate development has the greatest sensitivity to Meizhou, Chaozhou,
Shantou and Jieyang prices produced the largest inhibition effect, the
inhibition effect of the western part of the smallest. Therefore, we should
combine the current situation of housing prices in different regions with the
spatial effect mechanism of impact factors and promote the healthy development
of real estate economy according to local conditions. The main contribution of
this paper lies in: Firstly, for the first time we use ESDA-GWR model to
systematically analyze the evolution of city level characteristics and spatial
correlation of Guangdong Province and the spatial difference of impact factor
driving prices fluctuation, as well as to solve the problem of regional
differentiation regulation policies provide the basis. Secondly, we use the
theory of real estate cycle to analyze the difference between demand and supply
factors of housing prices in driving the fluctuation of housing prices in
different cities, which provides the basis for adopting differentiated
short-term and long-term regulatory policies and regional regulation and
control policies. But there are also the limitations of Guangdong Province.