Author(s)

Manuel Fernández-Sánchez, Per Broberg, Göran Pettersson, Cristiano Busso, Antonio Pellicer, Joan-Carles Arce

Biometrics, Global Clinical & Non-Clinical R&D, Ferring Pharmaceuticals A/S, Copenhagen, Denmark.
Instituto Valenciano de Infertilidad (IVI) Sevilla, Sevilla, Spain.
International Vaccine Institute (IVI) Valencia, Valencia, Spain.
Reproductive Health, Global Clinical & Non-Clinical R&D, Ferring Pharmaceuticals A/S, Copenhagen, Denmark.

Objective: To identify predictors of ascites collected prior to the hCG administration in patients undergoing IVF/ICSI treatment at moderate risk of developing moderate/severe ovarian hyperstimulation syndrome (OHSS), and, based on these predictors, develop a nomogram for estimation of the probability of presence of ascites. Methods and Materials: Data were derived from 53 patients with 20 - 30 follicles ≥10 mmat end of stimulation. All patients received a single dose of hCG (250 mg) to trigger final follicular maturation when ≥2 follicles of ≥18 mmwere observed. Transvaginal ultrasound to measure ascites (total amount of peritoneal fluid ≥9 cm2inlithotomy position) was performed 2, 5 and 8 days after the hCG administration. Associations between clinical, sonographic and endocrinological variables recorded prior to the hCG administration and presence of ascites were analyzed by univariable and multivariable logistic regression. Results: Thirty-four patients (64%) had ultrasonic evidence of ascites. The multivariable analysis identified the total number of follicles [OR 1.29 (95% CI: 1.02 - 1.69, P = 0.043)], the ovarian volume [OR 1.05 (95% CI: 1.00 - 1.11, P = 0.047)] and BMI [OR 0.76 (95% CI: 0.56 - 0.99, P = 0.053)] as predictors of ascites (AUC = 0.825). A nomogram (PROFET) was designed with these three variables for individual prediction of the probability of development of ascites. Conclusions: This pilot investigation indicates that the risk of peritoneal fluid accumulation in IVF/ICSI patients at moderate risk of developing moderate/severe OHSS is influenced by the number of follicles and the ovarian volume on the day of hCG administration as well as the BMI.

Ascites; IVF; OHSS; Ovarian Stimulation; Prediction

Fernández-Sánchez, M. , Broberg, P. , Pettersson, G. , Busso, C. , Pellicer, A. and Arce, J. (2013) Pre-hCG variables associated with occurrence of ascites in IVF/ICSI patients at moderate risk of developing OHSS: A pilot investigation. Open Journal of Obstetrics and Gynecology, 3, 13-20. doi: 10.4236/ojog.2013.31004.