American Journal of Climate Change

Volume 1, Issue 1 (March 2012)

ISSN Print: 2167-9495   ISSN Online: 2167-9509

Google-based Impact Factor: 1.51  Citations  h5-index & Ranking

The Impact of Climate Change on Crop Yields in Sub-Saharan Africa

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DOI: 10.4236/ajcc.2012.11001    15,291 Downloads   35,790 Views  Citations
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ABSTRACT

This study estimates of the impact of climate change on yields for the four most commonly grown crops (millet, maize, sorghum and cassava) in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). A panel data approach is used to relate yields to standard weather variables, such as temperature and precipitation, and sophisticated weather measures, such as evapotranspiration and the standardized precipitation index (SPI). The model is estimated using data for the period 1961-2002 for 37 countries. Crop yields through 2100 are predicted by combining estimates from the panel analysis with climate change predictions from general circulation models (GCMs). Each GCM is simulated under a range of greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) assumptions. Relative to a case without climate change, yield changes in 2100 are near zero for cassava and range from –19% to +6% for maize, from –38% to –13% for millet and from –47% to –7% for sorghum under alternative climate change scenarios.

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E. Blanc, "The Impact of Climate Change on Crop Yields in Sub-Saharan Africa," American Journal of Climate Change, Vol. 1 No. 1, 2012, pp. 1-13. doi: 10.4236/ajcc.2012.11001.

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