ABSTRACT
Urban spatial evolution is shaped by a complex interplay of anthropogenic activities and environmental dynamics, influenced by physical, socioeconomic, and regulatory factors. This study focuses on understanding the driving forces behind urban spatial evolution in Lagos, Nigeria, between 2000 and 2020. Utilizing quantitative analysis methods, particularly Pearson correlation coefficients, the study investigates correlations between land use/land cover changes and various factors, including population, economic indicators (GDP, gross output value of road transport, gross output value of agriculture, gross industrial output value), transport infrastructure (road network expansion), demographic trends (immigrant population), climatic variables (temperature, rainfall), and urbanization rate. Pearson correlation coefficients were computed to analyze the correlation between LULC changes and the selected factors. Results indicate that population growth emerges as the primary driver of urban spatial evolution, followed by economic activities, particularly GDP and gross output values of various sectors. Population growth is strongly linked to urban development (r = 0.982) and reduction in natural habitats (r = -0.942). Additionally, transport infrastructure expansion and demographic shifts contribute significantly to the increase in built-up areas and decrease in vegetation. Also, climatic factors such as temperature and rainfall exhibit moderate to strong correlations with LULC changes. This study underlined the correlation between human activities and environmental dynamics in shaping urban spatial evolution; therefore, it is recommended that sustainable urban development policies be implemented, focusing on preserving green spaces, integrating nature-based solutions, and engaging stakeholders to balance population growth with environmental conservation.