ABSTRACT
The rapid urbanization and population growth of Lagos City, Nigeria, have led to a significant change in land use and cover over the past two decades. The primary objective of this research was to assess the changes in land use and cover and forecast future trends in Lagos for the sustainable development of urbanization. The study utilized remote sensing and GIS technologies to monitor and identify the land use and cover of Lagos from 2000 to 2020. The CA Markov artificial neural network technique for cellular automata was employed to predict changes in land use and cover from 2020 to 2030. In addition, the post-classification comparison method was used to detect changes in classified classes in land use and cover. The study classified satellite images for 2000, 2010, and 2020 to develop land use and cover maps using ERDAS Imagine. The classification was based on six categories, namely 1) water bodies, 2) built-up, 3) bare land, 4) forest, 5) vegetation, and 6) wetlands. The results showed that: 1) the vegetation cover, wetlands, built-up areas, forests, and bare land have undergone significant changes over the past two decades. Built-up areas, wetlands, and forests have increased by 33.57%, 1.01%, and 21.37%, respectively, while vegetation, bare land, and water have decreased by 21.77%, 5.14%, and 17.13%, respectively. 2) Moreover, during 2020-2030, it is projected that 19.18% of forests and 16% of vegetation will decline, while 5.27% of barren land, 0.82% of wetlands, and 15.83% of water will increase. The urban area will be expanded by 42.44%. 3) The simulated results showed that the correction percentage was 82.43%, and the global kappa value was 0.85. The study found that the expansion of urban built-up areas due to population growth was the primary driver of the changes in land use and cover in Lagos. This research provides crucial insights that contribute to sustainable planning and management and helps us better understand the changes in land use and cover in Lagos.