Author(s)

Enzo Mantovani¹, Marcello Viti^1*, Daniele Babbucci¹, Caterina Tamburelli¹, Massimo Baglione², Vittorio D’Intinosante²

¹Dipartimento di Scienze Fisiche, della Terra e dell’Ambiente, Università di Siena, Siena, Italy.
²Prevenzione Sismica, Settore Sismica della Regione, Toscana, Italy.

Seismic activity is quite strong in the peri-Adriatic zones, whereas the internal part of the Adria plate is almost aseismic. This pattern suggests that Adria is a solid block that interacts with the surrounding belts, trying to move roughly northward. Each major earthquake in a peri-Adriatic zone triggers the acceleration of the decoupled Adria sector, which induces a perturbation of the stress/strain fields in the still blocked boundaries of the plate. Step by step, the displacement of Adria involves more and more northern zones to finally reach the northern front of the plate (eastern Southern Alps). This interpretation seems to be compatible with the time patterns of seismic activity in the main peri-Adriatic zones since 1600 A.D., which may suggest repeated northward migrations of seismic crises. Each supposed migrating sequence involves major earthquakes in most zones. The main features of the first 4 seismic sequences (1600-1930) are used to get insights into possible regularities in the progressive activations of the peri-Adriatic zones. This information and the main features of the ongoing migrating sequence (since 1931) are then used to tentatively recognize the peri-Adriatic zones where the occurrence of next major earthquakes may be most likely.

Tectonics, Adriatic, Short-Term Plate Kinematics, Seismicity Distribution

Mantovani, E. , Viti, M. , Babbucci, D. , Tamburelli, C. , Baglione, M. and D’Intinosante, V. (2022) Short-Term Kinematics of the Adria Plate and Space-Time Distribution of Major Peri-Adriatic Earthquakes. International Journal of Geosciences, 13, 1057-1081. doi: 10.4236/ijg.2022.1312054.