Author(s)

Majumder Debasish

University of Calcutta, Kolkata, India.

COVID-19, a virus of the size of 0.12 microns, had crippled the global economy with 19.14 million people infected as of April 15, 2020, increased to 37.11 million as of October 11, 2020 as per the COVID-19 Weekly Epidemiological Update published by World Health Organization (WHO). The COVID-19 count as of March 23, 2021 was more than 122 million, suppressing the last year’s rate of growth of the same. Economic activities across the globe had been stalled after February 2020. The world has been caged in a Great Lockdown. For the vast majority of people, this has been the biggest economic upset of their lives. There were many causes of recession delineated in the contemporary research papers. Nevertheless, too many causes of the crisis, too many research papers, so many techniques for optimization and too many surveys, etc., frequently divert the focus. We should not lose focus in the sea of numerous causes of recession. Therefore, the objective of the present paper is more specific: “Was conservative/defensive stance in the risk management in the regulatory policymaking post-global financial recession (2007-10) foreboding or worthy?”. The subprime crisis of 2007-08 and the economic recession that followed and many significant economic and socio political events after 2010, e.g., the sovereign debt crisis in Greece, European credit crisis, Brexit, the Venezuelan hyperinflation in 2014, China-United State trade war (July 6, 2018-present), etc., had left many economists on the defensive stance in the policy research/policy prescriptions. We can’t deny that scholars belonging to pre- and post-global financial crisis (2007-2010) generally possessed opposite views. For example, Berkowitz and O’Brien (2002) argued that 99th percentile VaR forecasts were conservative; however, recommendations by the BASEL committee of banking supervision (BCBS) since 2010 were 99th and 99.9th percentile VaR forecasts. It is difficult to judge if economic policies post-global financial crisis were impartial or for espousing a specific interest group/lobby. It is furthermore difficult to speculate if economic policies after 2010 were influenced by the great recession (2007-10)’s debilitating impacts.

Aggressive/Unconventional Monetary Policy, Value-at-Risk (VaR), Nowcasting

Debasish, M. (2021) I Was Learning Economics at the Cost of the Economy. Theoretical Economics Letters, 11, 615-642. doi: 10.4236/tel.2021.113041.