Author(s)

Gauri Bhuju^1,2, Ganga Ram Phaijoo², Dil Bahadur Gurung²

¹Department of Mathematics, Bhaktapur Multiple Campus, Bhaktapur, Nepal.
²Department of Mathematics, School of Science, Kathmandu University, Dhulikhel, Nepal.

A novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is an infectious viral disease caused by SARS-CoV-2. The disease was first reported in Wuhan, China, in December 2019, and it has been epidemic in more than 110 countries. The first case of COVID-19 was found in Nepal on 23 January, 2020. Now the number of confirmed cases is increasing day by day. Thus, the disease has become a major public health concern in Nepal. The propose of this study is to describe the development of outbreak of the disease and to predict the outbreak in Nepal. In the present work, the transmission dynamics of the disease in Nepal is analyzed mathematically with the help of SIR compartmental model. Reported data from June 1^st to June 17^th 2020 of Nepal are used to identify the model parameters. The basic reproduction number of COVID-19 outbreak in Nepal is estimated. Predictions of the peak epidemic time and the final size of the epidemic are made using the model. Our work predicts that, after 125 days from June 1 the infection will reach the peak. In this work, a good correlation between the reported data and the estimation given by our model is observed.

COVID-19, Compartmental Model, Basic Reproduction Number, Nepal, Parameter Estimation

Bhuju, G. , Phaijoo, G. and Gurung, D. (2020) Modeling Transmission Dynamics of COVID-19 in Nepal. Journal of Applied Mathematics and Physics, 8, 2167-2173. doi: 10.4236/jamp.2020.810162.