Share This Article:

Expert Systems Modeling for Assessing Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation in Agricultural Systems at Regional Level

Abstract Full-Text HTML Download Download as PDF (Size:3937KB) PP. 369-380
DOI: 10.4236/ojapps.2013.36047    3,219 Downloads   5,533 Views   Citations

ABSTRACT

Australian agriculture is very susceptible to the adverse impacts of climate change, with major shifts in temperature and rainfall projected. In this context, this paper describes a research methodology for assessing potential climate change impacts on, and formulating adaptation options for, agriculture at regional level. The methodology was developed and applied in the analysis of climate change impacts on key horticultural commodities—pome fruits (apples and pears), stone fruits (peaches and nectarines) and wine grapes—in the Goulburn Broken catchment management region, State of Victoria, Australia. Core components of the methodology are mathematical models that enable to spatially represent the degree of biophysical land suitability for the growth of agricultural commodities in the region of interest given current and future climatic conditions. The methodology provides a sound analytic approach to 1) recognise regions under threat of declines in agricultural production due to unfolding climatic changes; 2) identify alternative agricultural systems better adapted to likely future climatic conditions and 3) investigate incremental and transformational adaptation actions to improve the problem situations that are being created by climate change.

Conflicts of Interest

The authors declare no conflicts of interest.

Cite this paper

V. Sposito, R. Faggian, H. Romeijn and M. Downey, "Expert Systems Modeling for Assessing Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation in Agricultural Systems at Regional Level," Open Journal of Applied Sciences, Vol. 3 No. 6, 2013, pp. 369-380. doi: 10.4236/ojapps.2013.36047.

References

[1] W. W. Reid, et al., “Ecosystems and Human Well-Being,” Island Press, Washington DC, 2005.
[2] S. Salomon, et al., “Climate Change 2007: The Physical Scientific Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental panel on Climate Change,” Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2007.
[3] N. Stern, “The Economics of Climate Change: The Stern Review,” Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2007.
[4] S. C. Moser and J. A. Ekstron, “A Framework to Diagnose Barriers to Climate Change Adaptation,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, Vol. 107, No. 51, 2010, pp. 22026-22031. http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1007887107
[5] I. Jubb, P. Holper and W. Cai, “Managing Climate Change,” Papers from the GREENHOUSE 2009 Conference, CSIRO Publishing, Melbourne, 2010.
[6] C. Stokes and M. Howden, “Adapting Agriculture to Climate Change: Preparing Australian Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries for the Future,” CSIRO Publishing, Melbourne, 2010.
[7] R. Garnaut, “Climate Change Update,” 2011. www.garnautreview.org.au
[8] M. Parry, et al., “Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,” Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2007.
[9] Australian Bureau of Statistics, “Agricultural Commodities, Small Area Data, Australia, 2006-07,” Commonwealth of Australia, 2007, www.abs.gov.au
[10] P. Checkland, “Systems Thinking, Systems Practice,” John Wiley & Sons, Chichester, 1981.
[11] Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations, “Guidelines for Land-Use Planning,” FAO Development Series 1, FAO, Rome, 1993.
[12] F. Steiner, “The Living Landscape—An Ecological Approach to Landscape Planning,” 2nd Edition, Island Press, Washington DC, 2008.
[13] N. Nakicenovic and R. Swart, “Special Report on Emissions Scenarios for Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,” Cambridge University Press, Cambridge and New York, 2010.
[14] J. Clarke, “Final Report to the Victorian Department of Primary Industries,” Regional Victorian Data from Oz-Clim, CSIRO, Melbourne, 2010.
[15] CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology, “Climate Change in Australia: Technical Report 2007,” CSIRO and BoM, Canberra, 2007. www.climateinaustralia.gov.au
[16] H. Voogd, “Multicriteria Evaluation for Urban & Regional Planning,” Pion, London, 1983
[17] R. Keeney and H. Raiffa, “Decision with Multiple Objectives, Preferences and Value Tradeoffs,” Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1976.
[18] J. Malczewsky, “GIS and Multicriteria Decision Analysis,” John Wiley & Sons, New York, 1999.
[19] S. J. Carver, “Integrating Multi-Criteria Evaluation with Geographic Information Systems,” International Journal of Geographic Information Systems, Vol. 5, No. 3, 1991, pp. 321-339. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02693799108927858
[20] P. Jankowsky and L. Richard, “Integration of GIS-Based Suitability Analysis and Multicriteria Evaluation in a Spatial Decision Support System for Route Selection,” Environmental & Planning B, Vol. 21, No. 3, 1994, pp. 323-340. http://dx.doi.org/10.1068/b210323
[21] T. Prakash, “Land Suitability Analysis for Agricultural Crops: A Fuzzy Multicriteria Decision Making Approach,” International Institute for Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation, Enschede, 2003.
[22] E. A. C. Abella and C. J. van Westen, “Generation of a Landslide Risk Index Map for Cuba Using Spatial Multi-Criteria Evaluation,” Landslide, Vol. 4, No. 4, 2007, pp. 311-325. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10346-007-0087-y
[23] R. B. Thapa and Y. Murayama, “Land Evaluation for Peri-Urban Agriculture Using the Analytical Hierarchy Process and Geographic Information Systems Techniques: A Case Study of Hanoi,” Land Use Policy, Vol. 25, No. 2, 2008, pp. 225-239. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2007.06.004
[24] T. Cengiz and Akbulak, C. “Application of Analytical Hierarchy Process and Geographic Information Systems in Land-Use Suitability Evaluation: A Case Study of Dümrek Village (Canakkale, Turkey),” International Journal of Sustainable Development & World Ecology, Vol. 16, No. 4, 2009, pp. 286-294. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/13504500903106634
[25] J. R. Eastman, “IDRISI 32: Guide to GIS and Image Processing,” Vol. 2, Clark University, Worcester, 1999.
[26] A. A. Kliengibel and P. H. Montgomery, “Land Capability Classification,” Agriculture Handbook 210, United States Department of Agriculture, Washington DC, 1961.
[27] R. K. Rowe, D. E. Howe and N. E. Allan, “Guidelines for Land Capability Assessment in Victoria,” Soil Conservation Council, Melbourne, 1981.
[28] M. Burgman, “Risks and Decisions for Conservation and Environmental Management,” Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2005. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511614279
[29] T. L. Saaty, “Fundamentals of Decision Making and Priority Theory with the Analytic Hierarchy Process,” RWS Publications, Pittsburgh, 1994/2000.
[30] T. L. Saaty, “Decision Making for Leaders; The Analytic Hierarchy Process for Decisions in a Complex World,” RWS Publications, Pittsburgh, 1995.
[31] N. Bantayan and I. Bishop, “Linking Objective and Subjective Modelling for Land Use Decision-Making,” Landscape and Urban Planning, Vol. 43, No. 1-3, 1988, pp. 35-48. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0169-2046(98)00101-7
[32] R. F. Evert and S. E. Eichhorn, “Raven Biology of Plants,” 8th Edition, W. H. Freeman, Macmillan, 2013.
[33] K. J. Hennessy and K. Clayton-Greene. “Greenhouse Warming and Vernalisation of High-Chill Fruit in Southern Australia,” Climate Change, Vol. 30, No. 3, 1995, pp. 327-348.
[34] E. A. Richardson, S. D. Seeley, and D. R. Walker, “A Model for Estimating the Completion of Rest for ‘Redhaven’ and ‘Elberta’ Peach Tress,” Horticulture Science, Vol. 10, No. 4, 1974, pp. 561-562
[35] D. E. Linvill, “Calculation of Chilling Hours and Chill Units from Daily Maximum and Minimum Temperature Observations,” HortScience, Vol. 25, No. 1, 1990, pp. 14-16.
[36] V. Sposito, Faggian, R., Romeijn, H. and Rees, D., “Climate Challenges for Horticulture in Goulburn Broken and Sunraysia,” Department of Primary Industries, Melbourne, 2012.
[37] L. B. Webb, P. H. Whetton, G. V. Jones, J. S. Pal and F. Giorgi, “Earlier Winegrape Ripening Driven by Climatic Warming and Drying and Management Practices,” Nature Climate Change, Vol. 2, No. 4, 2012, pp. 259-264.
[38] S. Middleton and A. McWaters, “Hail Netting of Apple Orchards—Australian Experience,” Compact Fruit Tree, Vol. 35, No. 2, 2002, pp. 51-55.
[39] J. V. Possingham, “Developments in the production of table grapes, wine and raisins in tropical regions of the world,” Acta Horticulturae, Vol. 785, 2008, pp. 45-50.
[40] P. Hayman, M. Longbottom, M. McCarthy and D. Thomas, “Managing Grapevines during Heatwaves,” Grape and Wine Research and Development Corporation, 2012. www.gwrdc.com.au
[41] L. B. Webb, P. H. Whetton and E. W. R. Barlow, “Climate Change and Winegrape Quality in Australia,” Climate Research, Vol. 36, No. 2, 2008, pp. 99-111. http://dx.doi.org/10.3354/cr00740
[42] M. G. O. O’Donnell, I. Goodwin and G. M. Dunn, “Towards a Better Understanding of Crop Water Requirement in Orchards: A Case Study fro the Goulburn Valley,” Australian Journal of Experimental Agriculture, Vol. 46, No. 3, 2006, pp. 405-412. http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/EA04009
[43] National Research Council of the National Academies, “Toward Sustainable Agricultural Systems in the 21st Century,” The National Academies Press, Washington DC, 2010.
[44] L. Rickards, S. M. Howden, “Transformational Adaptation: Agriculture and Climate Change,” Crop & Pasture Science, Vol. 63, No. 3, 2012, pp. 240-250. http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/CP11172
[45] S. E. Park, N. A. Marshall, E. Jakku, A. M. Dowd, S. M. Howden, E. Mendham and A. Fleming, “Informing Adaptation Responses to Climate Change through Theories of Transformation,” Global Environmental Change, Vol. 22, No. 1, 2012, pp. 115-126. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2011.10.003
[46] F. Berkes, J. Colding and C. Folke, “Navigating Social-Ecological Systems: Building Resilience for Complexity and Change,” Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2003.
[47] D. R. Nelson, W. N. Adger and K. Brown, “Adaptation to Environmental Change: Contributions of a Resilience Framework,” Annual Review of Environmental Resources, Vol. 32, 2007, pp. 395-419. http://dx.doi.org/10.1146/annurev.energy.32.051807.090348

  
comments powered by Disqus

Copyright © 2018 by authors and Scientific Research Publishing Inc.

Creative Commons License

This work and the related PDF file are licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.