TITLE:
The Relationship between China’s Population Structure Change in Minority Areas, Economic Growth and Demographic Dividend—Based on an Empirical Analysis of Time Series Data from 1992 to 2012
AUTHORS:
Shanshan Gao, Junlin Shao
KEYWORDS:
Population Transition, Demographic Dividend, Economic Development, Minority Areas
JOURNAL NAME:
Open Journal of Business and Management,
Vol.4 No.2,
April
21,
2016
ABSTRACT: Because the sustainability of the economic development model has drawn much attention recently,
the academic circle and the government have begun to focus on the population of minority
areas. In past literature, due to the lack of the positive analysis of the relationship between minority
population transition and economic development, and due to sample limitation and other
factors, the research result is not very convincing. This paper used the economic convergence
theory to establish a theoretical model, and selected the panel data in eight minority-concentrated
provinces from 1992 to 2012 to analyze the impact of population transition in these provinces
on economic growth. The result reveals a significant positive correlation between investment,
human capital, the growth rate of labor and per capita GDP growth, a significant negative
correlation between children’s dependency ratio and per capita GDP growth, and an uncertain
relationship between elderly dependency ratio and per capita GDP growth. To maximize the
democratic dividend, it is necessary to speed up the development of educational undertakings in
minority areas, and to accelerate the industrial structure transition of minority areas. It is also
important to perfect institutional improvement of minority areas.