TITLE:
Changes in Regional Potential Vegetation in Response to an Ambitious Mitigation Scenario
AUTHORS:
Heike Huebener, Janina Körper
KEYWORDS:
Climate Change; Mitigation Scenario; Potential Vegetation
JOURNAL NAME:
Journal of Environmental Protection,
Vol.4 No.8B,
August
16,
2013
ABSTRACT:
Climate change
impacts on the potential
vegetation (biomes) are compared for an ambitious emissions-reduction scenario
(E1) and a medium-high emissions scenario with no mitigation policy (A1B). The E1 scenario aims at
limiting global mean warming to 2°C or less above pre-industrial temperatures and is closely related to the
RCP2.6 sued in the CMIP5. A multi-model ensemble of ten state-of-the-art coupled atmosphere-ocean general
circulation models (GCMs) is analyzed. A simple biome model is used
to assess the response of potential vegetation to the different forcing in the
two scenarios. Changes in biomes in response to the simulated climate change
are less pronounced in E1 than in the A1B scenario. Most biomes shift
polewards, with biomes adapted to colder climates being replaced by biomes
adapted to warmer climates. In some regions cold biomes (e.g. Tundra, Taiga)
nearly disappear in the A1B scenario but are also significantly reduced under
the E1 scenario.