TITLE:
Detection and Projections of Climate Change in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
AUTHORS:
Claudine Dereczynski, Wanderson Luiz Silva, Jose Marengo
KEYWORDS:
Climate Change; Extreme Event Indices; Air Temperature; Precipitation; Eta-HadCM3 Model; Rio de Janeiro
JOURNAL NAME:
American Journal of Climate Change,
Vol.2 No.1,
March
27,
2013
ABSTRACT:
A study on the detection and future projection of climate change in
the city of Rio de Janeiro is here presented, based on the analysis of indices
of temperature and precipitation extremes. The aim of this study is to provide
information on observed and projected extremes in support of studies on impacts
and vulnerability assessments required for adaptation strategies to climate
change. Observational data from INMET’s weather stations and projections from
INPE’s Eta- HadCM3 regional model are used. The observational analyses indicate
that rainfall amount associated with heavy rain events is increasing in recent
years in the forest region of Rio de Janeiro. An increase in both the frequency
of occurrence and in the rainfall amount associated with heavy precipitation
are projected until the end of the 21st Century, as are longer dry periods and
shorter wet seasons. In regards to temperature, a warming trend is noted (both
in past observations and future projections), with higher maximum air
temperature and extremes. The average change in annual maximum (minimum) air
temperatures may range between 2℃and 5℃(2℃and 4℃) above the current
weather values in the late 21st Century. The warm (cold) days and nights are
becoming more (less) frequent each year, and for the future climate
(2100) it has been projected that about 40% to 70% of the days and 55% to 85%
of the nights will be hot. Additionally, it can be foreseen that there will be
no longer cold days and nights.