TITLE:
U.S. Elite Fragmentation and Global Instability: Navigating the Road to Autocracy in the 21st Century
AUTHORS:
Michael Gerlich
KEYWORDS:
Elite Configurations, Democratic Erosion, Autocracy, United States Politics, Governance, Political Transitions, Disunited Elites, Devoid Elites
JOURNAL NAME:
Open Journal of Social Sciences,
Vol.12 No.11,
November
19,
2024
ABSTRACT: This paper examines the critical role of elite configurations in influencing the stability of democratic systems, focusing on the potential re-election of Donald Trump in the United States in 2024. Through a theoretical exploration, the paper delves into how various elite structures—disunited elites, devoid elites, and imposed unity elites—can lead to democratic erosion and a shift towards autocracy. The analysis draws upon comparative examples from countries such as Turkey, Hungary, Azerbaijan, and others, where elite reconfigurations have facilitated similar shifts away from democracy. Employing scenario analysis and insights from expert opinion, the paper presents findings that highlight a significant probability of democratic backsliding in the U.S. if these elite dynamics persist, with a potential consolidation of autocratic tendencies. The study also considers the global ramifications of U.S. political developments, arguing that elite cohesion and the reinforcement of democratic norms are essential to halting the slide into autocracy. Employing the Delphi method, multiple scenario analysis, and probabilistic modelling, this study examines elite configurations and their implications for democratic stability in the U.S., particularly concerning the potential 2024 re-election of Donald Trump. This research contributes to the ongoing discourse on elite theory, political transitions, and governance in fragile democracies, offering a broader understanding of how elite behaviour can shape the future of both domestic and international governance structures.