TITLE:
Assessing and Predicting Changes in the Status of Gambari Forest Reserve, Nigeria Using Remote Sensing and GIS Techniques
AUTHORS:
Oludare H. Adedeji, Opeyemi O. Tope-Ajayi, Olukemi L. Abegunde
KEYWORDS:
Change Detection, GIS, Gambari Forest Reserve, Forest Degradation, Idrisi, LCM, Satellite Remote Sensing
JOURNAL NAME:
Journal of Geographic Information System,
Vol.7 No.3,
June
30,
2015
ABSTRACT: Rapid population growth
and increasing economic activities have resulted in unsustainable exploitation
and rapid decline in the spatial extent of forest reserves in Nigeria. Studying
land use dynamics of these forest reserves is essential for analysing various
ecological and developmental consequences over time. Land use/land cover
mapping, change detection and prediction are essential for decision-making and
implementing appropriate policy responses relating to land uses. This paper
aims at assessing and predicting changes in land use/land cover at Gambari
forest reserve, Nigeria using remote sensing and GIS techniques. The study
determined the magnitude, rate and dynamics of change in the spatial extent of
the forest reserve between 1984 and 2014 using multi-temporal datasets (Landsat
TM 1984 and 2000 and OLI/TIRS 2014). The imageries were classified using ArcGIS
10.0 version with support of ground truth data and Land use Change Modeller
(LCM) and Markovian processes were employed to analyse the pattern and trend of
change. Prediction of 2044 scenario carried out using neural network, which is
a built-in module in the Idrisi. The study revealed dramatic decline in the
extent of the forest reserve as both the plantation of exotic tree species
(Tectona grandis and Gmelina) and the indigenous stands have been logged in
several places for timber and to make way for cultivation of crops. In
addition, pressures from other land uses like settlements have also led to
increased non-forest uses particularly bare grounds. The study concluded that
increasing loss of the indigenous forest and plantation would continue thus
having implications for biodiversity conservation in the study area. There is
the need for participation of different stakeholders and sectors to solve
conflicting demands on limited forest resources and ensure ecosystem integrity.