TITLE:
Assessment of Past and Future Land Use/Land Cover Dynamics of the Old Kumasi Metropolitan Assembly and Atwima Nwabiagya Municipal Area, Ghana
AUTHORS:
Addo Koranteng, Bernard Fosu Frimpong, Isaac Adu-Poku, Jack Nti Asamoah, Tomasz Zawiła-Niedźwiecki
KEYWORDS:
Forest Loss, Random Forest Classifier, Change Detection, Urbanization, Markov-Cellular Automata
JOURNAL NAME:
Journal of Geoscience and Environment Protection,
Vol.11 No.3,
March
22,
2023
ABSTRACT: Ghana
like all countries in Sub-Saharan region of Africa have long been undergoing intense land use
land cover changes (LULCC) which have given rise to extensive forest loss
(deforestation and degradation), loss of arable land and land degradation. This
study assessed the past LULCC in the Atwima Nwabiagya which contains the
Barekese and Owabi Headworks) and the old Kumasi Local Assemblies’ areas in
Ghana and projected the scenario in 2040 for business-as-usual (BAU). The
synergies of satellite imagery of 1990, 2000, 2010 and 2020 were classified
with an overall accuracy of 90%. Markov Cellular-Automata method was used to
forecast the future LULC pattern after detecting main driving forces of LULCC.
The findings showed an extensive increase in built up areas from 11% in 1990 to
39% in 2020 owing largely to 23% decrease in forest cover and 6% decrease in
agricultural lands within the past 30 years (1990-2020). The projected LULC
under the BAU scenario for 2040 showed built-up surge from 39% to 45%
indicating additional forest loss from 43% in 2020 to 40% and decreasing
agricultural land from 17% to 14%. The main driver for the LULCC is clearly
anthropogenic driven as the human population in the study area keeps rising
every censual year. This study exemplifies the fast-tracked forest loss, loss
of arable land and challenges on ecosystem sustainability of the
Barekese-Owabi-Kumasi landscape. The current and projected maps necessitate the
apt implementation of suitable interventions such as reforestation, protection
measures and policy decision in deliberate land use
planning to mitigate further loss of forest cover and safeguard the Barekese
and Owabi headworks.