TITLE:
Influence of Climate Variability on the Dynamics of Malaria Transmission among Children in Bangui, Health Challenges in Central African Republic
AUTHORS:
Bogning Mejiozem Brice Olivier, Mbetimangue Péngas Eliezer, Edwige Victoire Ngatimo, Bogning Kakounguere Evodie Pierrette, Maurice Tsalefac, Gody Jean Chrysostome
KEYWORDS:
Influence, Climate Variability, Malaria, Children, Bangui
JOURNAL NAME:
Open Journal of Pediatrics,
Vol.12 No.3,
June
17,
2022
ABSTRACT: Background: Malaria was the deadliest worldwide vector-borne disease in 2017. The
objective of this study was to determine the eco-epidemiology of malaria at the
reduced scale of a Health Region in children less than 5 years old. Objectives: To assess the relationship between climate and malaria epidemiology in children less than 5 years old in Bangui. Methodology: Health data were collected
from the Health Region Nº7 database. Climatic data were collected from the
database of the Bangui M’poko station and the Bangui national meteorological
delegation. Demographic data were collected from the United Nations Population
Fund and the Central African Institute of Statistics, Economic and Social
Studies. Ethical clearance was obtained from the local ethics committee, which
allowed us to access the data from each institution. The independent variables
were collected in the districts. Several statistical methods were used to
analyze confidentially the data. Results: During the survey, for 1160 mm
of water in 2004, 317 children died versus 56 for 1516 mm of water in 2013, i.e., a correlation coefficient between
rainfall and malaria is 0.51. There was a statistically significant association
between rainfall and malaria in Bangui as well as a correlation between
malaria-related death and the level of humidity, i.e., for 51.99ºC, the number of death increased from 294 cases in
2004 to 216 cases for 49.74ºC in 2013 with a correlation coefficient between
humidity and malaria morbidity of 0.46 and the coefficient of determination r2 of 21.31%. Malaria was influenced by humidity. Malaria transmission was higher
during the rainy season (May to October) with an incidence of 61.11% (n = 44,193)
versus 38.89% (n = 28,125) for the dry season (November to April). The 8th
borough of Bangui with a very high level of vulnerability recorded the highest
incidence of malaria (64,748 cases). Finally, the first borough with 11,502 cases
of malaria had a very low level of vulnerability. Conclusion: Climatic
trends have a negative impact on the outcome of malaria in Bangui. The
consequences are the number of deaths of children under 5 years old.