TITLE:
Empirical Study on the Sustainable Development of Domestic Tourism
AUTHORS:
Shichang Shen
KEYWORDS:
Number of Tourists, ARIMA Model, Predictive Analysis
JOURNAL NAME:
Open Journal of Statistics,
Vol.10 No.4,
August
5,
2020
ABSTRACT: Taking the number of domestic tourists as the
research object, an appropriate model is established to analyze the sustainable
development of China’s tourism industry. The number of domestic tourists in
China from 1985 to 2015 was taken as a sample, and the ARIMA model was
established using Eviews 6.0.
Finally, the ARIMA(0, 2, 1) model is established.
After testing, the model fits well (MAPE = 7.363) and the prediction accuracy
is extremely high (99.56%). The ARIMA model’s short-term prediction of the
number of tourists is reasonable.