TITLE:
An Analysis of the Spring-to-Summer Transition in the West Central Plains for Application to Long Range Forecasting
AUTHORS:
Rosalie G. Newberry, Anthony R. Lupo, Andrew D. Jensen, R. Antonio Rodriges Zalipynis
KEYWORDS:
Interannual Variability, Summer Season Transitions, El Nino, Pacific Decadal Oscillation
JOURNAL NAME:
Atmospheric and Climate Sciences,
Vol.6 No.3,
May
25,
2016
ABSTRACT: The
spring-to-summer transition is of special importance in long range forecasting,
as the general circulation transitions to a less energetic regime. This affects
the Midwestern United States in a profound way, since agriculture is very
sensitive to the variability of weather and climate. Beginning at the local
scale, surface temperature observations are used from a representative station
in the West Central Missouri Plains region in order to identify the shift from
late spring to early summer. Using upper-air re-analyses as a supplement, the
500-mb height observations are examined to find a spring-to-summer transition
date by tracking the location of a representative contour. Each of these is
used to identify spring-to-summer transition date and then statistical analysis
is performed on this long-term data set. Finally, teleconnections, specifically
the influence of El Ni?o Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal
Oscillation (PDO), and blocking are examined in order to quantify interannual
variability. It was found that examining these criteria, developed in an
earlier study that covered a much shorter time period, produced similar
statistics to this 68-year study of spring-to-summer transitions. It was also
found that the onset of La Ni?a was associated with hotter summers in the
region, a result first found in the earlier study, but this association was
much stronger here.