_{1}

The first necessary condition for the onset of an earthquake is the penetration of explosive gas into an explosive zone as a result of physical or chemical reaction. The second necessary condition is to ensure the subsequent propagation of the flame after ignition. The latter condition has made it possible to explain the impact of a cyclone on the emergence of 42 strongest earthquakes in the 21st century. If violation of this condition can be achieved with the help of vibrators or explosions, this will result in a decrease in the magnitude of an earthquake or even a complete prevention of earthquakes. Thus, the second condition is essentially a “pressure lock” that opens (with a decrease in the pressure caused by a cyclone), which leads to an earthquake or closes (with an increase in the pressure caused by an anticyclone or human interference using vibrators or explosions), which leads to earthquake prevention. Kinetic equations of the 2nd type were used to describe chemical reactions and obtain formulas for the precursor time, which made it possible to describe earthquakes of the chemical channel. The set of experimental time values of the earthquake precursor described by the physical model includes about 20% of all earthquakes; 80% of earthquakes can be attributed to the chemical channel for earthquakes that occurred in Dushanbe in 1983. All earthquakes in Tiberias in June 2018 passed through the chemical channel, which can be concluded from the small magnitude of these earthquakes. Several proposals have been made, including: 1) creating a new sensor for the geochemical method, which allows determining the epicenter of a future earthquake; 2) creating a network of stations with a new sensor for determining the epicenter and an atmospheric pressure meter installed at each station (this will determine if the “pressure lock” is closed by an anticyclone, which can lead to a decrease in the magnitude of an earthquake or even prevent an earthquake); 3) installing vibrators in epicenters (or making daily explosions with explosives delivered by trucks, drones, airplanes or helicopters, which should lower the magnitudes of future dangerous earthquakes); 4) alerting the public to the expected future earthquake; 5) developing specialized vibrators for reducing the magnitude of an impending catastrophic earthquake. Thus, this article is a breakthrough, describing a new mechanism in earthquakes for understanding and theory of earthquakes, which are used for the vast majority of earthquakes, including for program to reduce the magnitude of dangerous earthquakes.

“The father of modern geology”—Sir Charles Lyell argued [

What conditions are necessary for an earthquake and what is the physical and mathematical model of the process? Explosive gas passes between continental and oceanic plates and rushes to the surface of the Earth. Consider the gas flow densities Hg presented in

The flow of other explosive gases, mainly methane, as methane makes up 98% of natural gas, will be proportional to the flow of Hg. A mixture of gas and air is explosive only if the concentration of flammable gas in it is between the lower LEL and the upper explosion limits UEL.

The high concentration of explosive gas in the focus will begin to decrease by some mechanism until its concentration reaches the explosive zone (LEL, UEL), in which an explosion can occur.

Thus, the first necessary condition for the onset of an earthquake is the need for an explosive gas to enter an explosive zone in which an explosion can occur, which will lead to an earthquake (M.G. Noppe [

This article discusses the mechanism for reducing the concentration of explosive gas through chemical reactions.

Section 2, “On the mechanism of explosive ignition in earthquakes” discusses the possible values of UEL.

Section 3, the 2nd necessary condition for the onset of an earthquake is justified and the “pressure lock” is described.

Section 4 explains the observed earthquakes with an open “pressure lock”.

Section 5, “Chemical channels in earthquakes,” describes the kinetic reactions used.

Section 6, the earthquakes in Dushanbe and Tiberias are analyzed in terms of the number of earthquakes transmitted through the chemical channel.

Section 7, we consider the conditions that allow us to understand when the chemical and physical channels in earthquakes can work.

Section 8, “Decrease in the magnitude of the impending catastrophic earthquake”, estimates the effects of pressure buildup using CV-40 vibrators. Examples of various phenomena that contribute to the reduction of seismicity are described, as well as the successful use of vibrators and explosions; proposals are offered in “Our proposals”.

Sections 9, 10 present Conclusions and Acknowledgments.

Natural gas consists mainly of methane (CH_{4})—from 70% to 98%. The composition of natural gas may include heavier hydrocarbons—methane homologues: C_{2}H_{6}, C_{3}H_{8} и C_{4}H_{10}. Natural gas also contains other substances that are not hydrocarbons: H_{2}, H_{2}S, N_{2}, Hg, He, and other gases. Therefore, we assume that the main possible explosives associated with earthquakes in the Tiberias are alkanes (methane, etc.), and oxygen is the oxidizing agent. Consider the following chemical reactions, which are supposed to be the main sources of ignition in the centers of the earthquake:

• A series of branched chemical chain reactions leading to explosions and the onset of an earthquake,

• Various exothermic reactions leading to thermal explosions and the onset of an earthquake.

1) Let us consider in

2) The ignition limit 3 in

Gas | Lower explosion limit (LEL) volume % | Upper explosion limit of (UEL) volume % |
---|---|---|

CO | 16.4 | 75.1 |

H_{2} | 9.4 | 66.5 |

CH_{4} | 4.4 | 16.4 |

H_{2}S | 4.3 | 25.5 |

The concentration of combustible gas in the air below which the combustible mixture cannot explode, but above which it can burn as a result of explosion, is called the lower explosive limit (LEL) or the third ignition limit of the gas. The gas concentration below which the explosion occurs and above which the mixture is not capable of igniting is called the upper explosive limit (UEL) or the fourth gas ignition limit.

The lower concentration limit of the methane and air mixture (3rd limit) is practically independent of pressure. Standard values of explosive limits of various gases, known in the literature, are presented in

UEL = 61742 − 52992 exp [ − 0.1087 Р 0.66675 ] % (1)

According to the author [_{3}O_{4}, МnО_{2}, ВаО_{2}, РbО_{2}, Рb_{3}О_{4} or oxygen-containing salts of NaNO_{3}, Ba(NO_{3})_{2}, KNO_{3}, КClO_{4}, КCl_{3}. Oxygen compounds can also serve as oxidizing agents: hexachloroethane C_{2}C_{l6}, fluoroplast-3. Acetylene explodes at a temperature of about 500˚C or pressure above 0.2 MPa. It is possible that future studies may indicate other exothermic reactions that determine the conditions of ignition of the chemical reaction in the centers of earthquakes. When the pressure passes the boundary value of the upper limit of self-ignition, the first necessary condition for an earthquake is realized [

The general criterion for the onset of an earthquake should include not only the ignition conditions of the chemical reaction, but also the conditions for the subsequent propagation of the flame. In the center of earthquakes, combustible gases accumulate in the pores, which we will simulate with pipes. The normal flame propagation speed in the pipes is affected by the diameter of the pipe. It was found that the flame propagation speed decreases with decreasing pipe diameter d. If

d < d K R (2)

where d_{KR} is the critical diameter, the flame propagation speed becomes equal zero (

The critical diameter is the maximum diameter of the pipe at which flame propagation in the combustible mixture is impossible. The explanation of this phenomenon lies in the fact that with a decrease in the diameter of the pipe, heat losses increase, in connection with this, the combustion temperature decreases, and with sufficiently large heat losses, the propagation of the flame becomes impossible. The formula for d_{KR} is presented in [

d K R = const / ( P u n ) (3)

where P is the pressure, u_{n} is the normal flame propagation speed. The critical diameter is inversely proportional to pressure [

1) Observational materials [

2) Thus, the origin of thirty earthquakes in July 2018 may be associated precisely with the preceding negative gradients of atmospheric pressure in the Tiberias region [

Gradient amplitude (mm Hg. St) | N earthquakes | 100% Gradient amplitude/760 |
---|---|---|

4 - 10 | 24 | 100 4/760 = 0.53% |

10 - 20 | 9 | 100 10/760 = 1.3% |

>20 | 9 | 100 20/760 = 2.6% |

3) Note, that the overwhelming number of earthquakes in Israel occurred precisely in the summer months, when quiet weather with warm temperatures is usually observed [

In this section, the kinetics of reactions leading to ignition in the foci of earthquakes are considered. Methane is the most common explosive gas in natural gas. To describe the reaction CH_{4} + 2O_{2} = 2H_{2}O + CO_{2}, we use the second-order kinetic reaction model [

d x / d t = k ( a − х ) ( b − х ) (4)

where A(t), B(t), x(t) are the current concentrations, A(0) = a, B(0) = b, x(0) = 0 where a and b are the initial concentrations of A B; x is the current concentrations. The solution of (4) with x(0) = 0 is written in the form:

x ( t ) = a b [ 1 − exp ( k t ( a − b ) ) ] / [ b − a exp ( k t ( a − b ) ) ] (5)

A ( t ) = a − x ( t ) = a ( a − b ) / [ a − b exp ( k t ( b − a ) ) ] (6)

1) Let b > a.

Then A ( 0 ) = a , A ( ∞ ) = 0 . Suppose a > UEL, then an explosion will occur at some moment T, determined from the equation A(T) = UEL, solving which, we will get a solution in the form

lg T = − lg ( k ( b − a ) ) + lg [ ln [ ( a / b ) ( 1 + ( b − a ) / UEL ) ] ] (7)

− lg ( k ( b − a ) ) > lg [ ln [ ( a / b ) ( 1 + ( b − a ) / UEL ) ] ] (8)

Therefore, we write an approximate formula for lg(T/h) and T(s)

T ( s ) ≈ 1 / [ κ ( 1 / s ) ( b − a ) ] , lg ( T / h ) ≈ − lg ( 3600 k ( b − a ) ) (9)

Using Formulas (7)-(9) from [

UEL = 100 N / N A , E = m K 2 = J 10 6.5 + 1.449 M , m = N μ = N A UEL μ / 100 = ( J / K 2 ) 10 6.5 + 1449 M , (10)

UEL = ( 100 J / N A μ K 2 ) 10 6.5 + 1449 M (11)

Thus, log(T/h) weakly depends on the magnitude of M and is mainly determined by the reaction rate constant k and the difference in initial concentrations in accordance with (9).

2) Let a > b.

Then A ( 0 ) = a , A ( ∞ ) = a − b . Suppose (a − b) < UEL. Then the explosion will occur at the moment T, defined by the equation A(T) = UEL, solving which we get a solution in the form

lg T = − lg ( k ( a − b ) ) + lg [ ln [ ( b / a ) ( 1 − ( a − b ) / UEL ) ] ]

− lg ( k ( a − b ) ) > lg [ ln [ ( b / a ) ( 1 − ( a − b ) / UEL ) ] ] .

Therefore, we write an approximate formula for lg(T/h) and T(s)

T ( s ) ≈ 1 / [ κ ( 1 / s ) ( a − b ) ] , lg ( T / h ) ≈ − lg ( 3600 k ( a − b ) ) , где [T_{h}] = [h]. (12)

Thus, log(T/h) weakly depends on the magnitude of M and is mainly determined by the reaction rate constant k and the difference in initial concentrations in accordance with (12).

The results of the development of the geochemical method are described in [

1)

the dashed circle in

2) Based on the previously presented considerations about earthquakes in articles [

κ ( 1 / s ) mod ( a − b ) = 7.82 × 10 − 7 ( 1 / s ) ,

2.55 = lg ( T / h ) = − lg [ 3600 k 2 mod ( a − b ) ] .

The set of experimental time values of the earthquake precursor in

3) It can be assumed that all the earthquakes in Tiberias in July 2018 passed through the chemical channel, which follows from the small magnitude of these earthquakes (M < 5).

4)

This section analyses the conditions that allow us to understand when the chemical and physical channels in earthquakes can work. Consider the model of the kinetic reaction of the second order [

B ( t ) = b − x ( t ) = b ( b − a ) / [ b − a exp ( k t ( a − b ) ) ] (13)

The reaction through the chemical channel is faster than through the physical channel. Therefore, the reaction proceeds through the physical channel only when the reaction through the chemical channel cannot proceed. We will analyze the course of various reactions with various initial data.

1) Let a > b, then A ( ∞ ) = a − b , B ( ∞ ) = 0 .

a) If UEL > a − b > 0, then A ( t 2 ) = UEL , B ( t 2 ) = b − a + UEL > 0 , then a chemical channel explosion occurs at time t2.

b) If A ( ∞ ) = a − b > UEL , B ( ∞ ) = 0 , then there is no explosion and the chemical channel is closed, because the methane concentration is above the threshold, and oxygen is absent. Note: the tendency of A(t) to (b − a) is described by exponential formulas, therefore, instead of A ( ∞ ) , we take some value of А(T1). Therefore, at t > T1, the chemical channel is closed, because there is no oxygen, and then the process can go along the physical channel. First, the reaction goes through the chemical channel, then the chemical channel closes and the process goes through the physical channel.

2) Let b > a > UEL x ( ∞ ) = a . We assume that x ( t 3 ) = a − UEL , then A ( t 3 ) = a − x ( t 3 ) = UEL , which means that an explosion occurs at time t3, the reaction passed through a chemical channel. Thus, the considered model made it possible to understand, what parameters are required for reactions to go through the chemical or physical channels.

1) To assess the pressure growth effect on closing the “pressure lock”, and thus reduce the amplitude of a future catastrophic earthquake, the CV-40 vibrators, proposed in [

P = 2 π ρ ˙ f c A (14)

where P is the maximum acoustic pressure, f is the frequency; с—sound propagation speed; medium density; A is the amplitude of the oscillation of the particles of the medium. We use the formula for the vibrational velocity V = 2πfA and write the amplitude in the following form

P = ρ ˙ V c (15)

where с = 7000 m/s, ρ ˙ = 5 000 kg / m 3 . The vibrational velocities for the CV-40 were carried out under various frequency control systems and, as shown in ^{5} nm/s, Vy = 8.8 × 10^{4} nm/s, Vz = 2.0 × 10^{5} nm/s) and the total vibrational velocity is V = 3.4 × 10^{5} nm/s. In terms of their energy equivalent, the parameters of the wave field generated by the powerful CV-40 vibrators in the range of 1 - 350 km are close to the corresponding energy parameters of the seismic field from the explosion with a TNT equivalent of 1 t. Then the pressure amplitude P is P = 3.4 × 10^{5} nm/s × 5000 kg/m × 37,000 m/s =1.19 × 10^{4} Pa. The fraction P of normal pressure (Pn = 101,325 Pa) is P/Pn = 0.012. Obviously, sound pressure can be increased further. For example, by increasing the frequency interval of the vibrator. The frequency should not be increased too much, because with increasing frequency, generally speaking, the absorption coefficient rises. But for low frequencies, obviously, this can be done if the task is to use a vibrator at depths up to 15 km. The authors of [

According to [

2) The authors of [

3) Studies of excited seismicity in the area of the dam reservoir of the Nurek hydroelectric station showed that with an increase in the level of vibrations during spillways, the average daily seismic energy, normalized to an area of 1000 km^{2}, decreases by three orders of magnitude, and strong earthquakes disappear [

4) Our Proposals

a) A patent is proposed for a new device [

b) It is proposed to create a network of stations. At each station it is proposed to place a device for determining the epicenter of a future earthquake and a device for determining the air pressure dependence on time. If the measurements

show anti-cyclone, then this pressure can lead to a decrease in the earthquake magnitude or even prevent an earthquake.

c) Having determined the epicenters of a future earthquake, in which very large flows of mercury gases are measured (and, therefore, large future earthquakes can be anticipated), it is proposed to install vibrators in the epicenters (or to make explosions), which should lower the magnitudes of future dangerous earthquakes. In addition, it is necessary to notify the population about the expected future earthquake.

d) It is proposed to launch the work on creation of specialized vibrators for the purpose of reducing the magnitude of an impending catastrophic earthquake, which will be more powerful and cheaper than the CV-40 sweep 7.91 - 11.23 Hz.

It was shown that the first necessary condition for the onset of an earthquake is the need for an explosive gas to enter the explosive zone for this gas through a physical or chemical reaction (in в ранее опубликованных и настоящей article). The article formulates the 2nd necessary condition for the onset of an earthquake, which consists in the fact that it is necessary to ensure the subsequent propagation of the flame after ignition. The fulfillment of the 1st necessary condition is not enough for an earthquake to occur. The 2nd condition is the excess of the diameter of the pipe (pores in the focus) over the critical diameter inversely proportional to the pressure. This condition of the beginning of the earthquake made it possible to explain the effect of the cyclone on the beginning of 42 strongest earthquakes in the 21st century. If violation of the 2nd necessary condition for the onset of an earthquake is achieved, using vibrators or explosions, it results in a decrease in the magnitude of the earthquake or even complete prevention of earthquakes. Thus, the 2nd condition is a “pressure lock” that opens (with a decrease in pressure caused by a cyclone), which leads to an earthquake or closes (with an increase in pressure caused by an anticyclone or human interference with the help of vibrators or explosions), which leads to earthquake prevention.

The second-order kinetic equations were used to describe chemical reactions and to obtain formulas for the precursor time, which made it possible to understand the difference between earthquakes of a physical channel and earthquakes of a chemical channel. The sets of parameters are found at which earthquakes by the physical channel are possible. In the future, the mathematical models used to study the physical channel should include physical and chemical processes simultaneously.

The second set of experimental values of the earthquake precursor time along the straight line 1 on

Several proposals have been made, including: 1) to create a new sensor that allows determining the epicenter of a future earthquake; 2) to create a network of stations, with a new sensor for determining the epicenter and an atmospheric pressure meter installed at each station (this will determine if the “pressure lock” is closed by an anticyclone, which can lead to a decrease in the magnitude of earthquake or even prevent earthquake); 3) to install vibrators in epicenters (or to carry out daily explosions using trucks, drones, planes or helicopters), which should lower the magnitudes of future dangerous earthquakes; 4) it is necessary to notify the population of the expected future earthquake; 5) to launch the work on the creation of specialized vibrators for the purpose of reducing the magnitude of an impending catastrophic earthquake, which will be more powerful and cheaper than the CV-40 sweep (7.91 - 11.23 Hz).

Thus, this article is a breakthrough, describing a new mechanism in earthquakes (The Chemical Channel of Earthquake Reactions) for understanding and theory of earthquakes, which are used for the vast majority of earthquakes, including for program to reduce the magnitude of dangerous earthquakes.

The author is grateful to Lev Gilat for sending some materials and for helpful discussions. The author also thanks Valery Cherkasky for his assistance with making of figures.

The author declares no conflicts of interest regarding the publication of this paper.

Noppe, M.G. (2020) The Chemical Channel of Earthquake Reactions and Decrease in the Magnitude of Earthquakes. International Journal of Geosciences, 11, 84-99. https://doi.org/10.4236/ijg.2020.113006