_{1}

The article describes a project proposed to determine the epicenter of a future short-focus earthquake tens of hours before and to reduce the magnitude of an impending catastrophic earthquake. It focuses on developing a physical model to determine the conditions necessary for the start of an earthquake, for a method based on the registration of flows of mercury vapor in the gas rising from the Earth. This model gives an explanation of why an earthquake precursor appears so early (such a long period of time can range from a few to hundreds of hours). Normally, the characteristic times of an earthquake precursor for seismic methods are tens of seconds. The project is based on the physical and mathematical models of an earthquake. The derived formula for the time of the precursor of a future earthquake allows us to explain and to describe the time increase for the precursor, depending on the magnitude of the earthquake. The method of reducing the magnitude of an impending catastrophic earthquake is based on the proposed physical model of the onset of an earthquake and is implemented by the action of a vibration source in the region of the detected earthquake epicenter. The proposed system should save citizens, lives from future short-focus earthquakes.

In July 2018, 30 short-focus weak earthquakes (with the hypocenter depths of 1 - 15 km) occurred in the region of Tiberias (Israel). According to the world classification [

Section 2 provides information on the use of mercury measurements as earthquake precursors. Section 3 describes the physical concepts of earthquakes. The physical model of a short-focus earthquake, which formulates the conditions for the occurrence of an earthquake, is presented in Section 4. Section 5 presents the physical-mathematical model of an earthquake. Section 6 describes the proposed method for determining epicenter of earthquakes. Conclusions are presented in Section 7.

An increase in mercury gas Hg was recorded in the Tashkent region after the 1966 earthquake, and it was suggested that Hg may be a precursor of an earthquake [

In this section physical representations of earthquakes are considered, following the conceptual system of hypotheses described by Gilat A. and Vol A. [

earthquakes; 3) radio and acoustic noise before the earthquake; 4) diffused glow and ball lightning; 5) completely measureable rise of the ground, before an earthquake; 6) stress cycles associated with earthquakes and changes in groundwater regimes [

During the Earth’s accretion period primordial hydrogen and helium, comprising 98% - 99% of the space matter, were trapped and stored in the Earth’s core and mantle through endothermic reactions as both solid and liquid solutions and chemical compounds. After the planet stabilized, the energy gained by the capture of H and He has been quasi-continuously released by the exothermic reactions of the degassing of the Earth. The resulting heat and continuous explosions produce the manifestations of magmatic activity in general, particularly volcanic eruptions and earthquakes. Analyses of gases in lavas from Kamchatka volcanoes show that primary explosive gases uncontaminated by meteoric water and air (H_{2}, Cl_{2}, CO, OH, F_{2}, Br_{2}, H_{2}S, and CH_{4}) comprise 10% - 70% of total volcanic gases. Saturated with energy gases break through fragile rocks and form passages for magma into magmatic chambers, as well as supplying with energy the earthquakes and volcanic eruptions. Tectonic earthquakes are presented and discussed as a series of chemical explosions caused by chemical chain branching reactions [

What conditions are necessary for an earthquake and what is the cause of more than 30 earthquakes in the region of Tiberias within one month of 2018? The Syrian-African Rift passes through Tiberias and opens up the possibility of the passage of explosive gases to the surface of the Earth. Statistics show that July is the month when earthquakes are most likely. Explosive gases on the way to the surface of the Earth get trapped, surrounded by poorly permeable rocks, which causes accumulation of gases in the traps. Explosiveness of combustible gases depends on their concentration and the concentration, of air, as described in [

Thus, the necessary condition for the onset of an earthquake is that an explosive gas has to be in the explosiveness range for that gas. The natural gas consists mainly of methane (CH_{4})—from 70% to 98%. The composition of the natural gas may include heavier hydrocarbons—methane homologues: C_{2}H_{6}, C_{3}H_{8}, and C_{4}H_{10}. Natural gas also contains other substances that are not hydrocarbons: H_{2}, H_{2}S, N_{2}, Hg, He, and other gases. Therefore, we assume that the main possible explosives associated with earthquakes in the Tiberias region are alkanes (methane, etc.)—oxygen. The next triggers that can cause an explosion can be: a series of branched chemical chain reactions, tidal interaction, and atmospheric pressure gradients. For deep-focus earthquakes, other compounds can play the role of an oxidizer, but in this article only small-focus earthquakes will be considered. Thus, the proposed earthquake model provides a physical explanation for the existence of earthquake precursors as follows. Let us consider the experimental measurements presented in

Gas | Lower explosion limit (LEL) volume % | Upper explosion limit of (UEL) volume % |
---|---|---|

CO | 16.4 | 75.1 |

H_{2} | 9.4 | 66.5 |

CH_{4} | 6.0 | 6.7 |

H_{2}S | 4.3 | 25.5 |

Similar reasons (filling of all 30 traps by gas, coming from the Syrian-African fault) can explain the origin of 30 earthquakes in July 2018 in the region of Tiberias. The existence of traps that have the ability to become earthquake foci is determined by the requirement: the diffusion coefficient D (center) ≪ D (surrounding rocks). For example, for mercury D (samples of dry rocks) 0.1 (cm^{2}/s) ≫ D (samples of natural moisture) 10^{−5} (cm^{2}/s) [

Earthquakes as a process are quite complicated and have different mechanisms. It can be assumed, that the following chemical reactions in the focus of a short-focus earthquake are an important mechanism influencing the onset of an earthquake.

In the conditions of lack of oxygen all hydrocarbons emit carbon dioxide and water. For example:

CH 4 + 3O 2 = CO 2 + 2H 2 O . (1)

With an even smaller amount of oxygen, fine carbon (soot) is released:

CH 4 + O 2 = C + 2H 2 O . (2)

For an earthquake to occur, oxygen is also needed in its focus. Therefore, the more time passes from the moment of filling the trap with gas, the less oxygen is present in the focus due to reactions (1), (2), which ultimately leads to an increase in the precursor time and, therefore, to a decrease in the power of the earthquake. It can be assumed that another important mechanism affecting the onset of an earthquake is a decrease in atmospheric pressure on the Earth’s surface (i.e., a cyclone burst). One of the signs of a cyclone is the prevailing area of calm weather in the center of the cyclone. Inside this area, a warmer temperature is formed than in the rest of the air flow and lower humidity is observed [

The analysis of the observational data for the largest earthquakes with M ≥ 7.5 for the period 2000-2010 [^{st} century. The atmospheric pressure gradients for 42 earthquakes are shown in

The following explanation can be given for the trigger of atmospheric pressure gradients at the beginning of an earthquake, which follows from the presented

Gradient amplitude (mm Hg. St) | N earthquakes |
---|---|

4 - 10 | 24 |

10 - 20 | 9 |

>20 | 9 |

physical model of the onset of an earthquake. The formation of a cyclone (leading to a decrease in pressure) initiates the release of an explosive gas into the atmosphere; which in turn accelerates the decrease in the concentration of gas into the atmosphere; which in turn accelerates the decrease in the concentration of gas in the focus. This process will continue until the gas concentration falls within the explosion range, after which an earthquake will occur. Thus, the origin of thirty earthquakes in July 2018 may be associated precisely with the preceding negative gradients of atmospheric pressure in the Tiberias region. Note, that the overwhelming number of earthquakes in Israel occurred precisely in the summer months, when quiet weather with warm temperatures is usually observed [

In this section, we consider the simplest physical and mathematical models of a short-focus earthquake associated with the diffusion of an explosive gas in all directions from the earthquake source, which will allow us to obtain a formula for estimating the time interval of an earthquake precursor.

The piezoelectric conductivity equation in the theory of filtration (describing the motion of a gas in a porous medium) is written as follows [

P t = æ Δ P . (3)

where piezoconductivity coefficient æ = ( 0.1 ~ 5 ) m 2 / s ; this range for æ was fixed for various environments. The accumulation of gas mass in the trap can be interpreted as the appearance of an instantaneous point source of mass m_{0}, which begins to diffuse the gas in space. Then, the gas P(r, t) can be described by the formula (if the origin is placed in the earthquake source) [

P ( r , t ) = E 0 exp ( − r 2 / 4 æ t ) / ( 8 ( π æ t ) 3 / 2 ) , (4)

where E 0 = m 0 k B T k / μ , m_{0} is the mass of gas in the focus, μ ( CH 4 ) = 2.663442 × 10 − 26 kg , k_{B} is Boltzmann constant, T_{k} is temperature.

The gas density u(r, t) can be described by the formula (if the origin is placed in the earthquake source) in the following form:

U ( r , t ) = m 0 exp ( − r 2 / 4 æ t ) / ( 8 ( π æ t ) 3 / 2 ) , (5)

U ( 0 , T ) = U 1 = m 0 / ( 8 ( π æ T ) 3 / 2 ) . (6)

where U_{1} is the gas density at which an earthquake occurs, for example, (for CH_{4} and air) U_{1} = 0.08 (kg/m^{3}). The earthquake energy E is equal to:

Е = κ 1 m 0 . (7)

The formula linking magnitude M and energy of earthquakes was presented in [

lg ( E / J ) = 6.5 + 1.449 M , (8)

where E is the earthquake energy, J is one joule. Then the formula for the time precursor of the earthquake T, using (4)-(8), can be written as following:

T = 10 4.333 + 0.966 M ( J / k 1 U 1 ) 2 / 3 / 4 π æ . (9)

We calculate T = 19 hours, using (9) and M = 3 , k 1 = 2 . 76 MJ / kg , U 1 = 0.0 8 kg / m 3 , æ = 0. 1169 m 2 / s .

lg ( T ) = a + b M , (10)

where a and b are free parameters. Thus, the derived formula (9) coincides in functional structure with the empirical formula (10). Moreover, formula (9) represents expressions for the free parameters a and b. Deviations from formulas (5) and (9) are observed in the processing of experimental measurements: earthquakes represented in a circle in

· the indicated earthquakes had a relatively small, different concentration of the oxidizer in the foci compared with the concentration of the oxidizer in the foci for earthquakes satisfying formulas (5) and (9);

· this scatter of small initial conditions of oxidizer concentration led to a significant increase in the time of the precursor T when the gas diffusion occurred due to the absence of the necessary explosion conditions and to the scatter of points;

· in turn, due to reactions (1) and (2) this led to an even greater increase in the time of the precursor T and, accordingly, to a significant decrease in the concentration of an explosive gas, when the necessary explosion condition became satisfied after the diffusion of the gas;

· as a result, the magnitude of earthquakes M decreased significantly and the points describing earthquakes, due to the initial spread of oxidizer concentrations in the source, fell into the area of the circle.

In the paper [

The specific form of detection of mercury in rocks discovered in the course of research [

It is established that the reaction of rocks to deformations, accompanied by the release of Nd vapors from them, serves as an effective tool for studying the dynamic processes occurring in rocks, which is used in sensors.

Our proposals:

1) A patent is proposed for a new device for recording information about earthquake precursors using mercury measurements as an extremely strong and sensitive forerunner occurring tens of hours before an earthquake. The proposed equipment for recording information should be able to determine the epicenter of a future earthquake.

2) It is proposed to create a network of stations in the north of Israel. At each station it is proposed to place a device for determining the epicenter of a future earthquake, as well as a device for determining the dependence of air pressure on time.

The prototype [

In our proposed patent, the flow of mercury from any direction of a certain solid angle Ω_{0}, comes into only one sensor. The number of sensors located in the hemisphere is N = 2π/Ω_{0}. Thus, once the delta-shaped gas flow from the fault fills all the traps in the region, the gas begins to diffuse in all directions from all the traps in the region. Now, looking at the gas flows in the entire set of sensors in the hemisphere, we can immediately determine the sensor with the maximum gas flow from all traps in the region and find the solid angle from which the maximum gas flow came to every station from all earthquakes. Considering together the maximum gas flows from several stations located in the region, we can determine the epicentres and hypocentres of future earthquakes.

The method of finding the epicenter of a future earthquake is described in the Section 6. This section describes the proposed reduction in the magnitude of a future earthquake by slowing down the process of an explosive gas release from the earthquake source, which should prevent catastrophic earthquakes basing on the paper [^{2} decreases by 3 orders of magnitude and strong earthquakes disappear. ^{2}, decreases by 3 orders of magnitude. In separate periods of time, when the amplitudes of technogenic vibrations in the adjacent territories reached a maximum value of 0.5 μm during spillway, earthquakes completely disappeared.

The authors suggest the following set of activities:

1) Creation of a network of seismic observations in a seismically active fault

zone with an energy level of representative recording of K ≥ 7 (M = 1.5). 2) Determination of the most probable places of expected strong earthquakes within a large seismic generating structure. 3) Creation of a complex of measurements of horizontal and vertical movements. Earth surface using GPS/GLONAS systems, including deformation measurements in adits. 4) Creation of a complex for regulating water injection into wells and vibration effects in areas of the likely occurrence of strong earthquakes. 5) Periodic injection of fluid into the wells in the phases of gravity lunar-solar tides of the earth’s crust, causing the expansion of tension environments. 6) Conducting vibrations of the earth’s crust in areas of likely occurrence of earthquakes with an intensity of up to 0.5 microns.

Based on the derivation of the formula for the time precursor of the earthquake T in Section 5, we write the time precursor of the earthquake T_{1} when the vibro-seismic device creates an oscillation with amplitude a and frequency ώ

T 1 / T = 1 / ( 1 − a c 0 ) 2 / 3 , (11)

where

c 0 = ώ ρ μ 0 c / ( 2 k B T k U 1 ) , (c_{0}= 0.625 µm^{−1}). (12)

The article presents a physical model of the conditions necessary for an earthquake to start, described for a method based on the registration of flows of mercury vapors in a gas rising from the Earth. This model gives an explanation of why a precursor appears such a long period of time ahead of an earthquake (from several hours to hundreds of hours), using a physical-mathematical model. The characteristic times of an earthquake precursor for seismic methods are tens of seconds. The formula for the time of the precursor of the future earthquake, derived from the proposed physical and mathematical model of the earthquake, made it possible to explain and describe the increase in the time when the precursor appears, depending on the magnitude of the earthquake. The developed physical model of a short-focus earthquake is the basis for the proposed project to determine the epicenter of a future short-focus earthquake tens of hours ahead of its start, and to reduce the power of an impending catastrophic earthquake. The proposed system of measures should save the lives of citizens from future catastrophic short-focus earthquakes. This article is a breakthrough in the following directions: a physical model of the onset of an earthquake has been proposed; it was formulated a necessary condition for the onset of an earthquake, which allowed explaining and theoretically describing the anomalously large time of the appearance of an earthquake precursor; Based on the proposed chemical formulas, an explanation of the deviations of the experimental observations from the formulas in the prototype was given; The article contains a patent proposal for a sensor and methods for reducing the magnitude of future catastrophic short-focus earthquakes. The results of the work are supposed to be protected by a patent. To implement the author’s proposals, it is necessary to carry out the following program: development and testing of the proposed sensor, which allows determining the epicenters of future earthquakes. It is proposed to create a network of stations in the north of Israel. At each station it is proposed to place a device for determining the epicenter of a future earthquake, as well as a device for determining the dependence of air pressure on time. The method of reducing the magnitude of an impending catastrophic earthquake is based on the proposed physical model of the onset of an earthquake and is implemented by the action of a vibration source in the region of the detected earthquake epicenter. Theoretical modeling of chemical processes should be the next stage of theoretical studies.

The author is grateful to Lev Gilat for sending of some materials and for helpful discussions. The author also thanks Valery Cherkasky for their assistance with making of figures.

The author declares no conflicts of interest regarding the publication of this paper.

Noppe, M.G. (2019) Determining the Epicenter of a Future Short- Focus Earthquake Tens of Hours before Earthquake and Reducing the Magnitude of an Impending Catastrophic Earthquake. International Journal of Geosciences, 10, 785-799. https://doi.org/10.4236/ijg.2019.108044

The Canadian company “Nanometrix” offered an earthquake early warning system; this technology will allow being informed about an earthquake with an interval of 10 - 30 seconds between the first strong earthquake and the destructive wave following it [

The delta-shaped appearance of increased pressure in the earthquake source leads to the appearance of a filtering pressure wave propagating in all directions, and, accordingly, to a measurement point on the Earth’s surface (pressure filtration waves have long been known and, in particular, are used to study layer parameters [Ovchinnikov, GG Kushtanova, AG Gavrilov, MV Filtrational Pressure Waves as a Method of Reservoir Flow Parameters Investigation, Oil and Gas business (electronic journal http://ogbus.ru/files/ogbus/issues/6_2015/ogbus_6_2015_p124-161_OvchinnikovMN_en_en.pdf)].

For calculations, we use the theory of propagation of intense acoustic waves in a medium without dispersion [Vinogradova MB, Rudenko OV, Sukhorukov AP Wave Theory: Nauka, M., 1979, 383 pp. https://nashol.com/2015033183698/teoriya-voln-vinogradova-m-b-rudenko-o-v-suhorukov-a-p-1979.html]. The problem of changing the amplitude and duration of a single triangular disturbance (see §3, chapter 6, c) described by the following expression for the initial form of the disturbance

u / u 0 = { 0 , τ < 0 ; ( 1 − τ / T 1 ) , 0 ≤ τ ≤ T 1 ; 0 , τ > 0 } ,

where u is the vibrational velocity, T is the pulse duration. Formulas describing the change in the peak value of the vibrational velocity u_{2}(x) and the pulse duration T(x) have the form

u 2 ( x ) = u 0 ( 1 + a x ) − 1 / 2 ; T ( x ) = T 1 ( 1 + a x ) 1 / 2 , (2.1)

where x is the distance, a = ε u 0 / c 2 T 1 , ε = ( γ + 1 ) / 2 , γ is the adiabatic index of the medium, with the speed of the acoustic wave. Based on formulas (2.1), we write the formulas for the flux density of mercury vapor F_{s}(t) in the sensor [

F 0 ( t ) = F ( 1 + τ / T 1 ) 2 , − T 1 ≤ τ ≤ 0 (2.2)

F 1 ( t ) = F ( 1 − t / T 1 ) 2 , 0 ≤ t ≤ T 1 (2.3)

F 2 ( t ) = F [ 1 − ( t − t 3 ) / T 2 ( y ) ] 2 / ( 1 + y ) , y = a x , t 3 = x / c , 0 ≤ t ≤ T 1 (2.4)

F s ( t ) = F 0 ( τ ) + F 1 ( t ) + F 2 ( t ) , − T 1 ≤ τ ≤ 0 ; 0 ≤ t ≤ T 1 (2.5)