The El Ni n o Index, defined as 4 intensities (very strong, strong, moderate, weak) in Oceanic Niño Index (ONI), was positively correlated with the average sunspot number at each intensity. The La Niña Index, defined as 3 intensities (strong, moderate, weak) in ONI, was negatively correlated with the average sunspot number from 1954 to 2017. It appears that very strong El Niño events occur frequently during the maximal sunspot number while strong La Niña events more often occur during the minimal sunspot number. Since greenhouse-gas is continuously increased, it is therefore proposed that the maximal sunspot number is a major parameter for prediction of El Niño while the minimal sunspot number applies in the same way for La Niña. El Nino/La Nina events can be classified as four typical cases depending upon the submarine volcanic activities at seamounts in Antarctica and South America. The Sea Surface Temperature (SST) of the South and Central Americas are warmer than SST of East Australian Current (EAC), due to the strong volcanic eruptions in the Seamounts and the Ridges in South and Central Americas. This results in the Central Pacific Current (CPC) flowing from east to west due to the second law of thermodynamics for thermal flow from hot source to cold sink. In contrast the opposite direction is made if SST in EAC is warmer than SST in the Central/South American Seamounts and Ridges, due to the strong volcanic eruptions in the Antarctic Seamounts and Ridges. Chicago was selected as a case study for the relationship between extreme cold weather conditions and minimal sunspot number. Previous attemp t s at predicting weather patte r ns in Chicago have largely failed. The years of the record low temperatures in Chicago were significantly correlated with the years of the minimal sunspot number from 1873 to 2019. It is forecast that there may occur a weak La Niña in 2019 and another record low temperature in Chicago in January of 2020 due to the phase of the minimal sunspot number in 2019. It may be possible to predict very strong El Ni n o events with the year of maximal sunspot number as El Niño Index (R2 = 0.7363) and the years of strong volcanic eruption in the Galapagos Hot Spot (GHS) (R2 = 0.9939), respectively. An El Niño event is thus expected during the year of strong volcanic eruption in the GHS. Strong La Niña events can be expected during the year of minimal sunspot number with La Niña Index (R2 = 0.9922). Record low temperatures in Chicago can be also predicted (R2 = 0.9995) during the year of the minimal sunspot number, as was recently the case in January, 2019.
The sunspot numbers between 1870 and 2020 are shown in
Kim [
Kim [
The purpose of the present study is to predict important natural phenomena such as El Niño and La Niña events, and years of the record low Chicago temperature by the sunspot number.
Every two to seven years, an unusually warm pool of water—sometimes two to three degrees Celsius higher than normal—develops across the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean to create a natural short-term climate change event. This warm condition, known as El Niño, spurs extreme weather patterns around the world, from flooding in California to droughts in Australia [
El Niño/La Niña events apparently play a critical role in the variability of Southern Ocean SST. Higher SST anomalies were observed in El Niño years while cooler anomalies were seen during La Niña years. During El Niño years, the ocean becomes noticeably warmer and the air pressure is high with rainfall and flooding. La Niña is essentially the anti-El Niño. Instead of warm water and high air pressure, waters are cold and air pressure is low with drought and cold weather. La Niña years often cause heavy snowfalls even in parts of the world far away from the Pacific [
Gay-Lussac’s law [
P H T H = P L T L (1)
where
PH, PL = Pressures at high (El Niño) and low (La Niña) in the tropical Pacific,
TH, TL = Temperatures at high (El Niño) and low (La Niña).
An El Niño event causes flooding due to TH with high evaporated seawater while La Niña occurs due to TL with low evaporated seawater. Therefore, if TH of SST is satisfied, pressure becomes high (PH) so that the South Equatorial Current flows from the hot source of the east Pacific (PH, TH) to the cold sink of the west Pacific (PL, TL), according to the second law of thermodynamics.
The Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) [
El Niño: characterized by a positive ONI greater than or equal to +0.5˚C.
La Niña: characterized by a negative ONI less than or equal to −0.5˚C.
By historical standards, to be classified as a full-fledged El Niño or La Niña episode, these thresholds must be exceeded for a period of at least 5 consecutive overlapping 3-month seasons [
El Niño regions in the Pacific were shown in
1) El Niño (1 + 2) 0˚ - 10˚S, 80˚ - 90˚W east Pacific
2) El Niño (3) 5˚N - 5˚S, 90˚ - 150˚W central Pacific
3) El Niño (4) 5˚N - 5˚S, 150˚ - 160˚W west Pacific.
The Galapagos Islands are reported to be a “hot spot”, which is a region of high thermic flux due to the presence of a magmatic plume ascending from the earth’s mantle (700 - 3000 km) [
The trade winds blow from the normally high-pressure area over the eastern Pacific (near Central and South America) to the normally stable low-pressure area over the western Pacific (north of Australia). In the Southern Oscillation, winds across the tropical Pacific reverse direction and blow from west to east.
During El Niño events, the surface ocean around the Galapagos warms substantially and the islands receive significantly more rainfall than in normal years. The warmer water is less nutrient-enriched than the cool waters that normally surround the Galapagos and the marine ecosystem consequently becomes disrupted, resulting in a high mortality rate of coral, seabirds, and marine mammals during the strongest El NiÑo events, such as those in 1982-83 and 1997-98 [
The planet’s crust is broken into 17 major rigid tectonic plates while volcanoes and earthquakes are generally found in the plate boundaries at the bottom of the oceans. Therefore, most volcanic activity is submarine, as seen in deep sea hydrothermal (≥350˚C) black smokers vents of volcanic gases at the East Pacific Rise [
Volcanic gases are commonly composed in the order of H2O (37% - 97.1%), CO2, SO2 (0.50% - 11.8%), H2, CO, H2S (0.04% - 0.68%), HCl, HF [
Peru (Humboldt) Current with South Equatorial Current moves away from the sources of volcanoes in the Galapagos Islands, Peru, Chile, Panama, Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Guatemala, Mexico, Colombia and Ecuador toward the sink of the west Pacific along trajectories of South Equatorial Current and Equatorial Winds in the equatorial Pacific.
It is evident that countries in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean located in mixing zones in the Panama Basin among warm (Panama 30˚C, South Equatorial 27˚C) and cold (Peruvian Coastal 16˚C~21˚C, Peruvian Oceanic 9˚C~21˚C, Cromwell 13˚C) currents, showed extensive precipitations; Costa Rica (2926 mm),
Step | Name | Location | Length (km) | Plate/Country |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Chile Rise | 35 - 45˚S/76 - 104˚W | 2250 | Nazca Plate/Antarctic Plate |
2 | Juan Fernández Ridge | 33˚S/76 - 82˚W | 900 (3900 m depth) | Volcanic islands and 11 seamount chains on the Nazca Plate |
3 | Chile Basin | 30 - 32.5˚S/80 - 90˚W | (4800 m depth) | Chile |
4 | Iquique Ridge | 23 - 28˚S/73 - 79˚W | 600 | Peru-Chile Trench |
5 | Nazca Ridge | 14.5 - 22˚S/76.3 - 82˚W | 1000 (200 km wide) | Peru Trench |
6 | Peru Basin | 14˚S/83˚W | (4000 m depth) | Nazca Plate/Peru |
7 | Ecuador Continental Shelf | (200 m depth) | Nazca Plate/Ecuador | |
8 | Ecuador Insular Shelf | Nazca Plate/Ecuador | ||
9 | Carnegie Ridge (Galapagos Islands, 13 volcanoes) | 0 - 2˚S/81.3 - 85.0˚W | 1350 (300 km wide) (1000 - 3500 m depth) | Ecuador |
10 | Cocos-Nazca Ridge | 2 - 3˚N/94.6 - 96.5˚W | (2000 m depth) | Galapagos (Cocos-Nazca) Spreading Center |
11 | Malpelo Ridge | 2 - 5˚N/80 - 81˚W | 300 km (100 km wide) | Carnegie Ridge/Colombia |
12 | Panama Basin | 5˚N/83.3˚W | (3300 m depth) | Surrounded by Panama, Colombia, Ecuador |
13 | Coiba Ridge | 6.3˚N/81.45˚W | 150 km (100 km wide) | Panama |
14 | Cocos Ridge | 2.3 - 8.5˚N/82.8 - 90.3˚W | 1000 (200 km wide) (1000 - 3000 m depth) | Cocos Plate, Costa Rica |
15 | Colon Ridge | 2˚N/96˚W | Undersea Features | |
16 | Guatemala Basin | 6 - 11˚N/87 - 99˚W | (2600 m depth) | Cocos Plate (Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua) |
17 | Tehuantepec Ridge | 13.3˚N/98˚W | (2000 - 4000 m depth) | West Coast Mexico |
18 | East Pacific Rise | 8.5 - 14˚N/104 - 104.5˚W | (200 - 700 m depth) | Gulf of California, Pacific Plate/ North American Plate/ Cocos Plate |
Country | Precipitation | Area (km2) | Heat Amount | Volcano Number | Earthquake Number | Ridge | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
During year of 2011 (mm) | Rank | ×1018 cal | Rank | |||||
Costa Rica | 2926 | 1 | 51,100 | 2.3 | 10 | 13 | 11 | Cocos (Costa Rica Province, Cocos Island Province, Southwest Province) |
Panama | 2692 | 2 | 74,177 | 3.0 | 9 | 3 | 4 | Coiba |
Colombia | 2612 | 3 | 1,141,748 | 45 | 1 | 16 | 25 | Carnegie/Malpelo/ Columbia-Ecuador Trench |
Nicaragua | 2391 | 4 | 129,494 | 4.7 | 6 | 19 | 9 | Nicaraguan fore-arc |
Ecuador | 2087 | 5 | 283,561 | 8.7 | 5 | 43 | 24 | Carnegie |
Guatemala | 1996 | 6 | 108,889 | 3.3 | 7 | 29 | 25 | Middle American Trench |
Honduras | 1976 | 7 | 112,492 | 3.3 | 8 | 4 | 3 | Middle American Trench |
Peru | 1738 | 8 | 1,279,999 | 35 | 2 | 29 | 56 | Nazca |
El Salvador | 1724 | 9 | 21,040 | 0.5 | 11 | 22 | 16 | Middle American Trench |
Chile | 1522 | 10 | 756,102 | 18 | 4 | 137 | 133 | Chile Rise |
Mexico | 752 | 11 | 1,972,550 | 23 | 3 | 42 | 64 | Tehuantepec/ East Pacific Rise |
Panama (2692), Columbia (2612), Nicaragua (2391), Ecuador (2087) (
Near the southern extremity of South America, most of the Antarctic Circumpolar Circulation (ACC) flows at 4 km∙h−1 eastward into the Atlantic (50˚S), but part of it curves toward the left and flows generally northward along the west coast of South America as the Peru Current (40˚S~45˚S). If the length of South American coastline (8409 km) is approximated, the time it takes the Peru Current from the Antarctic to
reach the Galapagos, is determined at a minimal 2.9 months { = 8409 km 4 km ⋅ h − 1 } ( 24 h ⋅ d − 1 ) ( 30 d ⋅ m − 1 ) with a current speed of ACC (4 km∙h−1). If applying the Peru Current speed of 40 cm∙s−1 (1.44 km∙h−1) [
During the El Niño, warm eastward-flowing waters from the equator dominate the Humboldt Current causing changes such as the increase of water temperature by up to 2˚C to 3˚C, sea-level rises up to 40 to 50 cm and a reduction in the availability of surface nutrients. Such changes have devastating consequences for pelagic fisheries off Chile, Peru and Ecuador, and for the marine fauna that relies on these normally highly productive areas. The El Niño event has also been associated with coral bleaching, mortality and changes in the abundance and distribution of seabirds, marine mammals and sea turtles [
Submarine volcanism occurs at the Mid Ocean Ridges (MORs), Back-Arc Spreading, Arc Volcanism, and Hotspots. The flux of volcanic CO2 to the ocean are MORs (27.8%), Back-Arc Basins (37.8), Volcanic Arcs (34.1), Hotspots (0.3) [
Submarine volcanoes are underwater vents or fissures in the Earth’s surface from which magma can erupt. They are estimated to account for 75% of annual magma output. The vast majority are located near areas of tectonic plate movement, known as ocean ridges. Many submarine volcanoes are seamounts, typically extinct volcanoes that rise abruptly from a seafloor of 1000 - 4000 meters depth. The peaks are often found hundreds to thousands of meters below the surface, and are therefore considered to be within the deep sea. An estimated 30,000 seamounts occur across the globe [
El Nino/La Nina events can be classified as four typical cases depending upon the submarine volcanic activities at seamounts in Antarctica and South America, as summarized in
Detailed description of columns in
1) Sunspot number in
2) Submarine volcanic activities occur (o) or don’t occur (x) at the seamounts of Antarctica (
Step | Name | Location | Length (km) | Remark |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Pacific-Antarctic Ridge | 54˚30' - 65˚28S/ 160˚15' - 180˚E | Southern Extension of East Pacific Rise (EPR) (Pacific Plate/Antarctic Plate) | |
2 | Mid-Atlantic Rise | 15˚W | Atlantic Ocean | |
3 | Southwest Indian Ridge | 53˚S/20 - 24˚E | 250 km | Indian Ocean (African Plate/Antarctic Plate) |
4 | Southeast Indian Ridge | 25 - 62˚S/ 70 - 170˚E | Indian Ocean seafloor (Indo-Australian Plate/Antarctic Plate) | |
5 | S. Tasman Rise (Tasmania Ridge) | 45 - 51˚S/ 147 - 150˚E | (800 - 3000 m depth) | Southern Ocean, Australia seafloor |
6 | Campbell Plateau | 50˚40'S/171˚E | (500 - 1000 m depth) | New Zealand (Large submarine plateau) |
7 | Chatham Rise | 39˚50'S - 50˚04'S/ 171˚29' - 178˚03' | 1000 km (544 - 3735 m depth) | New Zealand (Productive fishing ground) |
8 | Marie Byrd Seamount | 114 - 131˚W/ 68 - 71˚S | 800 km | Amundsen Sea |
9 | Orca Seamount | 62˚S/58˚W | 3 km wide (500 m height) | Bransfield Strait |
10 | South Sandwitch Islands (11 volcanic islands) | 56˚18' - 59˚27'S/ 26˚23' - 28˚08'W | 310 km2 (1370 m highest) | South Atlantic Ocean/Scotia Sea |
Case | Sunspot Number1) | Submarine Volcanic Activity2) | SST3) | Sea Ice Extent4) | Krill Abundance5) | Fishery Productivity6) | El Niño7) | La Niña 7) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ⅰ | Strong Maximal | Antarctica (o) South America (o) | ↑ ↑↑ | ↓ - | ↓ - | ↓ ↓↓ | ↑↑ | - |
Ⅱ | Weak Maximal | Antarctica (x) South America (o) | ↓ ↑↓ | ↑ - | ↑ - | ↑ ↓ | ↑ | - |
Ⅲ | Weak Minimal | Antarctica (o) South America (x) | ↑ ↓↑ | ↓ - | ↓ - | ↓ ↑ | - | ↓ |
Ⅳ | Strong Minimal | Antarctica (x) South America (x) | ↓ ↓↓ | ↑ - | ↑ - | ↑ ↑↑ | - | ↓↓ |
3) Sea surface temperature (SST) of the Equatorial Pacific is dependent upon SST caused by volcanic activities at seamounts in Antarctica (
4) Sea ice extent is dependent upon undersea volcanoes found off the West Antarctic ice sheet of the South Georgia Islands and South Sandwich Island, whose undersea volcanic system generates earthquakes and releases heat into the ice above to destabilize parts of the ice cap [
5) Krill abundance is proportional to sea ice extent during austral winter. It decreases (↓) with volcanic eruptions while melting ice by volcanic heat is increased (↑) with weak volcanic eruption.
6) Fishery productivity is decreased (↓) or strongly decreased (↓↓) if submarine volcanoes are present and have less phytoplankton growth due to volcanic toxic chemicals (SO2, H2S, HCl, HF, H2SO4) and further kill fish, bird, turtles and coral reefs. With weak volcanic eruptions in Antarctica fishery productivity is increased (↑) or further strongly increased (↑↑) with weak eruptions at seamounts of South America.
7) El Niño is strong (↑↑) when there are eruptions at the seamounts of Antarctica and South America at the same time, as in Case I. El Niño is weak (↑) if the seamounts of South America have eruptions while no eruptions in the Antarctica, as in Case II. La Niña is weak (↓) due to cooling by the Peru Current if there is only volcanic eruption in the undersea Antarctica with no volcanic eruptions at the seamounts of South America, as in Case III. There is a strong (↓↓) La Niña if neither Antarctica nor South America have any submarine volcanic activities, as in Case IV.
It is important to note that the extents of El Niño or La Nina events are dependent upon the submarine volcanic activities in Antarctica and South America. It can be thus postulated that El Nino and La Nina events are induced by the various degree of volcanic eruptions of seamounts in Antarctica, Central America, South America, and GHS, whose thermal currents toward the east Pacific and the west Pacific can be schematically drawn in
There are two major currents induced by centrifugal forces of ACC to be perpendicular to two exits: one is East Australian Current (EAC) between Tasmania of Australia and New Zealand while another is
the Peru Current (PC) along the west coast of South America. The shortest course to reach the central Pacific ocean around the equator is EAC while the slowest course is PC. It appears that the Volcanic activity in the GHS (VGHS) is the key parameter to control the direction of Ocean Surface Current of Central Pacific Current (CPC). If SST of VGHS plus PC is warmer, due to the strong volcanic eruptions in the Seamounts and the Ridges in South and Central Americas (
When CO2 is increased, ozone (O3) layers in the Poles become thinner so that UV radiation [
The El Niño Index was plotted in
Niño Index, defined as 4 degrees (Very Strong 4, Strong 3, Moderate 2, Weak 1) of intensity from data in
The year of volcanic eruption in the GHS [
El Niño (Sunspot Number) | La Niña (Sunspot Number) | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
(El Niño Index) | (La Niña Index) | |||||
Weak (1) | Moderate (2) | Strong (3) | Very Strong (4) | Weak (1) | Moderate (2) | Strong (3) |
1952-53 (0.05) 1953-54 (0.05) 1958-59 (0.34) 1969-70 (0.16) 1976-77 (0) 1977-78 (0.03) 1979-80 (0.25) 2004-05 (0.28) 2006-07 (0.05) 2014-15 (0.18) | 1951-52 (0.05) 1963-64 (0.04) 1968-69 (0.22) 1986-87 (0.04) 1994-95 (0.11) 2002-03 (0.29) 2009-10 (0) | 1957-58 (0.4) 1965-66 (0.02) 1972-73 (0.15) 1987-88 (0.05) 1991-92 (0.38) | 1982-83 (0.38) 1997-98 (0.16) 2015-16 (0.19) | 1954-55 (0) 1964-65 (0.06) 1971-72 (0.21) 1974-75 (0.03) 1983-84 (0.28) 1984-85 (0.22) 2000-01 (0.27) 2005-06 (0.1) 2008-09 (0.02) 2016-17 (0.04) 2017-18 (0.05) | 1955-56 (0.05) 1970-71 (0.22) 1995-96 (0.05) 2011-12 (0.05) | 1973-74 (0.09) 1975-76 (0) 1988-89 (0.05) 1998-99 (0.1) 1999-00 (0.11) 2007-08 (0.05) 2010-11 (0.02) |
Galapagos expedition by an international team led by the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI) revealed 70 unknown seamounts [
During the maximal sunspot number, there is an El NiÑo event, as shown in
“Life-threatening” temperatures hit record daily low in Chicago [
Year of Record Low Temperature in Chicago [ 30 ] | Year of Minimal Sunspot Number ( | Year of Corresponding La Niña Event ( |
---|---|---|
February 23, 1873 January 2, 1879 February 8, 1899 January 7, 1912 1926 January 22, 1936 1945 January 29, 1966 January 16, 1977 January 20, 1985 January 19, 1994 February 5, 2007 January 30, 2019 | 1873 1879 1902 1912 1926 1936 1945 1966 1975 1985 1995 2007 2019 | - - - - - - - 1964-65 1974-75 1984-85 1995-96 2007-08 2017-18 |
record temperatures can be predicted during the year of minimum sunspot number along with the corresponding La Niña events in
Furthermore, it can be predicted that record low temperatures in Chicago can occur during La Niña event, both of which showed good proportionalities; La Niña Index, R2 = 0.9922 in
It may be possible to predict very strong El Niño events with the year of maximal sunspot number as El Niño Index (R2 = 0.7363) and the years of strong volcanic eruption in the Galapagos Hot Spot (GHS) (R2 = 0.9939), respectively. An El Niño event is thus expected during the year of strong volcanic eruption in the GHS. Strong La Niña events can be expected during the year of minimal sunspot number with La Niña Index (R2 = 0.9922). Record low temperatures in Chicago can be also predicted (R2 = 0.9995) during the year of the minimal sunspot number, as was recently the case in January, 2019.
The El NiÑo Index, defined as 4 intensities (very strong, strong, moderate, weak) in Oceanic NiÑo Index (ONI), was positively correlated with the average sunspot number at each intensity. The La Niña Index, defined as 3 intensities (strong, moderate, weak) in ONI, was negatively correlated with the average sunspot number from 1954 to 2017.
It appears that very strong El Niño events occur frequently during the maximal sunspot number while strong La Niña events occur more often during the minimal sunspot number. Since greenhouse-gas continuously increases, it is therefore proposed that the maximal sunspot number is a major parameter for prediction of El Niño while the minimal sunspot number serves a predictive role for La Niña.
There can be four typical cases depending upon the submarine volcanic activities at seamounts in Antarctica and South America for the various degrees of El Nino/La Nina events. If Sea Surface Temperature (SST) of South and Central Americas is warmer, due to the strong volcanic eruptions in the Seamounts and the Ridges in South and Central Americas than SST of East Australian Current (EAC), Central Pacific Current (CPC) flows from east to west due to the second law of thermodynamics for thermal flow from hot source to cold sink. In contrast the opposite direction is made if SST in EAC is warmer, due to the strong volcanic eruptions in the Antarctic Seamounts and Ridges, than SST in the Central/South American Seamounts and Ridges.
The years of the record low temperatures in Chicago from 1873 to 2019 were significantly correlated with the years of the minimal sunspot number.
It is forecast that a weak La Niña may occur in 2019 and another record low temperature in Chicago in January of 2020 due to the phase of the minimal sunspot number in 2019.
It may be possible to predict very strong El Niño events with the year of maximal sunspot number as El Niño Index (R2 = 0.7363) and the years of strong volcanic eruption in the Galapagos Hot Spot (GHS) (R2 = 0.9939), respectively. An El Niño event is thus expected during the year of strong volcanic eruption in the GHS. Strong La Niña events can be expected during the year of minimal sunspot number with La Niña Index (R2 = 0.9922). Record low temperatures in Chicago can be also predicted (R2 = 0.9995) during the year of the minimal sunspot number, as was recently the case in January, 2019.
The author expresses sincere gratitude to the University of Suwon and G-Land of South Korea for their financial supports. Editing work undertaken by Professor Jonathan Wright is also greatly appreciated.
The author declares no conflicts of interest regarding the publication of this paper.