The Russia-Ukraine conflict is the most serious test of European security in the 21st century and the forgone conclusion is that Russia can easily prevail in the conflict, but this has not been the case. This article uses a contingency theory approach to report findings on the riddle why Russia has not easily defeated Ukraine. I report findings based on a contingency theoretical perspective that indicates Russian victory is unlikely because of negative contingencies having direct impact on the Russian economy including a sharp reduction in the value of the Russian ruble, the potential for political loss of support of the middle class for President Putin, diplomatic and political isolation and danger of escalation of the war, affecting Russia to a greater degree than the Ukraine.
President Putin allegedly stated: “If I wanted, Russian troops could not only be in Kiev in two days, but in Riga, Vilnius, Tallinn, Warsaw or Bucharest, too” [
Similarly, the contingency factors impact Ukraine and the Ukraine government, much of it negatively. The economy has slipped into a recession, the Ukraine currency has fallen by as much as half, large sections of its key energy and industrial areas have come under Russian control, internal refugees put a severe strain on the social security system and the loss of Donbass industry and Crimea shrank the Ukraine economy by 25%. On the positive side, Ukraine has achieved widespread sympathy for its struggle against Russia and governments and international organizations have rallied to its support. Some may think that the largest country on earth with the second largest nuclear weapons stockpile could easily defeat a country with only a population of about 45 million. Indeed, the simple calculation of the military power of the Russia overwhelms [
The paper is organized into five main parts: first, is the introduction; second, the qualitative design and methodology used are described; third, a short theoretical review of the literature streams used as a theoretical basis for the research domain and related proposition; fourth, evidence for the global contingencies of the war for Russia and Ukraine are presented; finally, conclusions are drawn.
This paper uses an explanatory qualitative case study methodology [
This paper uses the contingency theory approach, which is widely used in the international relations, business strategy, political power and behavioral sciences, to solve the riddle why Russia has not gained a quick victory in the war with Ukraine. Such contingency approach to researching plausible outcomes of conflicts and strategies has been advocated in the literature [
Proposition: contingencies and consequences of the war are negatively affecting Russia more than Ukraine.
Russia’s aggression towards Ukraine has not been a smooth sailing for Moscow and the question is what is the riddle? How come a great superpower has not easily and fast overtaken the much smaller Ukraine. I propose several plausible explanations to this riddle below. The explanations are neither supposed to be a complete list of explanations nor the only explanations but, the ones I have mentioned provide a different perspective than commonly expressed in the public media and academic literature reviewed above and they include military, economic, diplomatic and geopolitical contingencies limiting Russia’s options in Ukraine. The pro-Russian forces have failed to gain complete control of Donetsk and Lugansk districts and their further advances into Ukraine have been stopped by the Ukrainian forces, which came as a surprise to the Russian generals after the easy victory in the Crimea. The fierce resistance by the Ukrainian army, best demonstrated by the 242-day battle for the Donetsk Airport, upset the Russian plans for total domination of the Donbass basin and left the $860 million airport in complete ruin. In addition, the Russian military must consider the Ukraine’s substantial military capabilities, such as a large conventional weapons stockpile and biological, chemical, nuclear and radiological weapons potential as analyzed by [
The economic consequences for the Russian economy have been severe. The Russian ruble has taken a beating on foreign exchange markets and lost 50 percent of its value since January of 2014, partially due to international sanctions over the Ukraine conflict. To add to this problem, Russia suffered a capital flight of $151 billion in 2014 and $114 billion 2015 with the foreign currency reserves reaching a low of $356 billion in May of 2015. Such capital flight cannot be sustained for long and the Russian government responded with a two-prone strategy of limiting capital outflows and encouraging Russians and Russian companies to repatriate capital to Russia. These measures were partially successful and Russia’s foreign currency reserves rose to $418 billion in late 2017. Still, this is more than $104 billion lower than the reserves stood in October 2013 when the Euromaidan protest begun in Kiev [
Similarly, Russian trade sanctions on Ukraine have hurt the Russian economy as much needed components for the Russian military industrial complex manufactured in Ukraine has dried up. The Ukrainian components facilitated Russia’s export of contracted military equipment such as the AN140 tactical airplane and Mi-38 transport helicopter, the Ka-52 and Mi-28 attack helicopters. These helicopters are designed to use engines made by Ukraine’s Motor Sich plant [
Another blow to the Russian economy was the collapse of price of oil from over $100 in 2013 to as low as $28 in 2015 and a low $50 s in 2017. This must be a great concern for Russia as one half of its export revenue is energy related. The state-run media has alleged that the collapse of the price of oil is engineered by the USA with aid from Saudi Arabia to punish Russia for its interference in Ukraine [
Furthermore, the Russian commitment to the war in Syria is another contingency that puts more demands on Russia’s military and economic resources as the end of that war is nowhere in sight. Moreover, the diplomatic and military danger of being in direct conflict with military elements that may be receiving active support from the United States sets the stage for an accidental war with NATO countries. A case in point is the Turkish downing of the Russian fighter airplane on 24/11 2015 is a case in point [
There is significant evidence Russia’s war with Ukraine, employing hybrid tactics, is having a significant negative impact on Ukraine. The Ukraine currency has collapsed in value; in the first two months of 2015, the Ukraine currency lost 40% of its value prompting international rating services to downgrade the country’s sovereign debt to Ca, which means an imminent risk of default [
On the diplomatic front, Russia has scored significant victories with the Minsk 1 and Minsk 2 agreements, which stipulated semi-autonomous status for Lugansk and Donetsk regions as this was a de facto capitulation by the Poroshenko government. Although, Russian information warfare tactics attempt to undermine the support for the Kiev government both in Ukraine and worldwide, the Ukraine’s government survived a no-confidence vote on 16 February 2016. However, the Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk resigned on the 10 April 2016 because of corruption allegations. His resignation may have strengthened the position of President Poroshenko and may ultimately lead to more unified and effective government in Ukraine. This dire situation in Ukraine is partially offset by favorable world media and help from the EU, USA, IMF and other international institutions. This includes a 40$ billion IMF bailout package negotiated in late 2015, which is to be implemented in tranches coinciding with the implementation of economic and governance reforms by the Ukraine government.
Moreover, the armed forces of Ukraine have gained moral and material support from abroad. An Ukrainian-Polish-Lithuanian brigade has been established and negotiations are underway to establish a Ukraine, Romania and Bulgaria joint brigade [
Even with intense efforts by Russia, Ukraine survived the annexation of Crimea and the military onslaught on the Donbass and fought the military situation to a stalemate and, after more than three years of conflict, Ukraine has not collapsed into the Russia’s hands.
The evidence supports the proposition that Ukraine has more contingency factors in its favor than Russia. Hence the answer to the riddle why Russia has not waged a total war on Ukraine and conquered Kiev is that external and internal contingency factors, such as economic, diplomatic and geopolitical contingencies, have limited Russia’s actions. Furthermore, the plausibility of Russia waging a total war on the Ukraine is unlikely to happened because, of the Ukraine military’s defense capability and NATO and US support. Moreover, it appears that the tide of public and government opinion in Ukraine and western countries is so persuasively against Russia that the opportunity for Russia to influence events in Ukraine by non-violent means is going to be very limited for the foreseeable future. The world opinion is favorable towards Ukraine’s struggle for its independence, the armed forces of Ukraine are fully mobilized, Ukraine has a government and military that has gained legitimacy via elections, the surrounding countries, such as Poland and the Baltic states have mobilized and generally NATO has built up its forces on Russia’s borders. The EU, IMF and World Bank, as well as, many European governments have committed to Ukraine. Consequently, the contingency factors negatively affecting Russia have grown since the conflict started and this has benefited Ukraine and, Russia’s opportunity to take Kiev by military means is lost.
Johannesson, J. (2017) Russia-Ukraine War Is Not a Simple Riddle. Open Journal of Social Sciences, 5, 139-147. https://doi.org/10.4236/jss.2017.510013